Na Tofauti ya Trailing na Forward Dividend Yield
Trailing dividend yield inatumia malipo ya miezi kumi na miwili iliyopita, huku forward yield ikitumia malipo ya karibuni zaidi. Jifunze kwa nini screeners hutoa matokeo tofauti.
Trailing dividend yield na forward dividend yield ni majibu mawili kwa swali moja, na tofauti yote iko kwenye namba ya juu (numerator). Trailing yield, ambayo kwa kawaida huandikwa TTM kwa ajili ya miezi kumi na miwili iliyopita, hujumlisha dividends ambazo kampuni imelipa kihalisi katika mwaka uliopita. Forward yield huchukua malipo yaliyotangazwa hivi karibuni na kuyazidisha kwa idadi ya malipo kwa mwaka. Zote hugawanywa kwa bei ileile ya hisa. Wakati wowote malipo yanapobadilika ndani ya miezi kumi na miwili iliyopita, kanuni hizi mbili hutoa namba tofauti kwa hisa ileile katika wakati mmoja.
Hesabu ya uwiano huu inahusu jinsi ya kukokotoa dividend yield. Ukurasa huu unashikilia chaguo lililo juu ya mstari: ni takwimu ipi ya dividend ambayo chanzo kimeweka kwenye namba ya juu, na kwa nini vichujio viwili (screeners) vinanukuu ticker ileile kwa yields mbili tofauti katika mchana mmoja.
Je, trailing twelve month dividend yield ni nini?
Trailing yield hujumlisha kila dividend ya pesa taslimu yenye ex-dividend date ndani ya siku mia tatu sitini na tano zilizopita, kisha hugawanya jumla hiyo kwa bei ya sasa. Ex-dividend date ni siku ambayo hisa huanza kufanyiwa biashara bila malipo yajayo kuambatishwa, na ndiyo tarehe inayotumiwa na watoa huduma wengi wa data kuweka dividend katika muda husika.
Hakuna kinachokadiriwa katika takwimu ya trailing. Ni rekodi ya pesa taslimu ambazo tayari zimehamishwa, na ndiyo kipimo sahihi cha kile ambacho mmiliki alikusanya. Udhaifu wake ni kinyume cha nguvu hiyo: trailing yield inaelezea malipo ambayo huenda hayapo tena. Kampuni iliyorekebisha dividend yake ya kila robo mwaka mwezi uliopita bado inabeba hundi tatu za kiwango cha zamani ndani ya kipindi chake cha trailing, na itazibeba kwa miezi mingine tisa.
Je, forward dividend yield ni nini?
0.78% Forward yield hufanya makadirio ya malipo ya hivi karibuni kwa mwaka mzima: malipo ya mwisho yakizidishwa na marudio ya malipo, ikigawanywa kwa bei ileile ya soko. Kampuni inayolipa kila robo mwaka na ambayo tangazo lake la hivi karibuni ni $0.50 kwa kila hisa, ina kiwango cha forward cha $2.00. Kampuni inayolipa kila mwezi kwa kiwango cha $0.25 ina kiwango cha $3.00.
Huo ni utabiri unaojengwa juu ya uchunguzi mmoja, na unadhani kuwa malipo yajayo yatafanana na yale ya mwisho. Kinachopatikana hapa ni mtiririko wa fedha. Kampuni inapoongeza malipo, kiwango kipya huingia kwenye takwimu ya forward kuanzia malipo ya kwanza makubwa, wakati takwimu ya trailing inahitaji robo nne kamili ili kuonyesha mabadiliko hayo.
Dividend yield ya nyuma (trailing) dhidi ya ya mbele (forward) kwa walipaji wanane wakubwa
Jopo hapa chini linafanya hesabu zote mbili kwa walipaji wanane wakubwa dhidi ya bei ileile ya kikao cha hivi karibuni. Safu ya trailing inajumlisha gawio la fedha taslimu la miezi kumi na miwili iliyopita. Safu ya forward inafanya makadirio ya mwaka mzima kwa kutumia malipo ya hivi karibuni, ikizingatia mzunguko wa malipo uliowasilishwa nayo.
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH last_px AS (
SELECT ticker,
argMax(close, window_start) AS close_price
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('ABBV', 'CVX', 'JNJ', 'KO', 'MCD', 'MSFT', 'PEP', 'PG')
AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 10 DAY
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
+ toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY ticker
),
paid AS (
SELECT ticker,
sum(cash_amount) AS ttm_cash,
count() AS checks_in_window,
argMax(cash_amount, ex_dividend_date) AS latest_cash,
argMax(frequency, ex_dividend_date) AS pay_frequency
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
WHERE ticker IN ('ABBV', 'CVX', 'JNJ', 'KO', 'MCD', 'MSFT', 'PEP', 'PG')
AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
AND cash_amount > 0
AND ex_dividend_date > today() - INTERVAL 1 YEAR
AND ex_dividend_date <= today()
GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT p.ticker AS ticker,
round(toFloat64(d.ttm_cash) / toFloat64(p.close_price) * 100, 2) AS trailing_yield_pct,
round(toFloat64(d.latest_cash) * d.pay_frequency / toFloat64(p.close_price) * 100, 2) AS forward_yield_pct,
round((toFloat64(d.latest_cash) * d.pay_frequency - toFloat64(d.ttm_cash))
/ toFloat64(p.close_price) * 100, 2) AS forward_minus_trailing_pp,
d.checks_in_window AS checks_in_window,
round(toFloat64(p.close_price), 2) AS share_price
FROM last_px AS p
INNER JOIN paid AS d ON p.ticker = d.ticker
ORDER BY forward_minus_trailing_pp DESCSafu zimepangwa kulingana na tofauti kati ya mbinu hizo mbili. Juu, PEP inaonyesha forward yield ya 4.24% dhidi ya trailing yield ya 4.12%. Chini, MSFT inaonyesha 0.78% forward dhidi ya 0.77% trailing. Makampuni yaleyale, bei zilezile, mbinu mbili halali.
Safu ya hundi (checks) ndiyo chanzo kisicho dhahiri cha tofauti hiyo. Dirisha la siku mia tatu sitini na tano zinazozunguka si sawa na robo nne. Ex-dates hubadilika kwa siku chache kila mwaka, na dirisha linalonasa hundi ya tano huongeza takwimu ya trailing wakati kiwango kilichotangazwa hakijabadilika hata kidogo.
Jinsi marekebisho ya dividend yanavyoathiri viashirio viwili
3M ilirekebisha dividend yake ya kila robo mwaka mnamo 2024, sambamba na utengano wa biashara yake ya huduma za afya. 26 miezi ya mwisho hufuata kanuni zote mbili kuanzia wakati huo, huku malipo ya kila robo mwaka yaliyotangazwa yakiwa kando yao.
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH px AS (
SELECT toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS month_start,
max(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS last_day,
argMax(close, window_start) AS close_price
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'MMM'
AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2024-06-01')
AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
+ toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY month_start
),
dv AS (
SELECT ex_dividend_date, cash_amount
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
WHERE ticker = 'MMM'
AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
AND frequency = 4
AND cash_amount > 0
AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2023-05-01')
)
SELECT formatDateTime(px.month_start, '%Y-%m') AS month,
formatDateTimeInJodaSyntax(px.month_start, 'MMM yyyy') AS month_label,
round(toFloat64(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date)), 2) AS declared_quarterly_usd,
round(sumIf(toFloat64(dv.cash_amount), dv.ex_dividend_date > px.last_day - INTERVAL 1 YEAR)
/ toFloat64(any(px.close_price)) * 100, 2) AS trailing_yield_pct,
round(toFloat64(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date)) * 4
/ toFloat64(any(px.close_price)) * 100, 2) AS forward_yield_pct,
round(abs(toFloat64(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date)) * 4
- sumIf(toFloat64(dv.cash_amount), dv.ex_dividend_date > px.last_day - INTERVAL 1 YEAR))
/ toFloat64(any(px.close_price)) * 100, 2) AS gap_abs_pp
FROM px, dv
WHERE dv.ex_dividend_date <= px.last_day
GROUP BY px.month_start, px.last_day
ORDER BY px.month_startMnamo Jun 2024 malipo yaliyotangazwa yalikuwa $0.7 wakati hundi tatu za kiwango cha zamani zilikuwa bado ndani ya kipindi cha nyuma (trailing window). Trailing yield ilikuwa 5.1%. Forward yield ilikuwa 2.74%. Kanuni hizo mbili zilikuwa na tofauti ya 2.36 basis points kwenye hisa moja, kwa siku moja, huku bei ikiwa sawa katika sehemu zote mbili za hesabu. Orodha iliyopangwa kwa kutumia trailing yield mwezi huo iliiweka 3M kulingana na fedha taslimu ambayo ilikuwa imeshaacha kulipa kwa kiwango hicho. Hakuna namba iliyokuwa na makosa; zinajibu maswali tofauti.
Safu ya pengo hufungika baada ya robo nne hundi za zamani zinapotoka kwenye kipindi hicho. Kufikia Jul 2026 viashirio vilikuwa 1.71% kwa trailing na 1.77% kwa forward, zikiwa na tofauti ya 0.06 basis points. Ulinganifu ndio hali ya kawaida. Pengo hufunguka tu wakati malipo yanapobadilika, jambo ambalo ongezeko na upunguzaji wa dividend hulishughulikia katika soko zima, na rekodi ya dividend ya 3M hufuatilia malipo kwa kila hatua.
Walipaji wa kila mwezi, hundi kumi na mbili na wakati mwingine kumi na tatu
Realty Income huongeza malipo yake ya kila mwezi kwa hatua ndogo mara kadhaa kwa mwaka, jambo ambalo huifanya kiwango chake cha mbele (forward rate) kuwa mbele kidogo ya mwaka uliopita. Safu ya hundi huhesabu kile ambacho dirisha la nyuma (trailing window) linashikilia kwa kila usomaji.
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH px AS (
SELECT toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS month_start,
max(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS last_day,
argMax(close, window_start) AS close_price
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'O'
AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2024-08-01')
AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
+ toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY month_start
),
dv AS (
SELECT ex_dividend_date, cash_amount
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
WHERE ticker = 'O'
AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
AND frequency = 12
AND cash_amount > 0
AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2023-07-01')
)
SELECT formatDateTime(px.month_start, '%Y-%m') AS month,
formatDateTimeInJodaSyntax(px.month_start, 'MMM yyyy') AS month_label,
round(toFloat64(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date)), 4) AS declared_monthly_usd,
countIf(dv.ex_dividend_date > px.last_day - INTERVAL 1 YEAR) AS checks_in_window,
round(sumIf(toFloat64(dv.cash_amount), dv.ex_dividend_date > px.last_day - INTERVAL 1 YEAR)
/ toFloat64(any(px.close_price)) * 100, 2) AS trailing_yield_pct,
round(toFloat64(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date)) * 12
/ toFloat64(any(px.close_price)) * 100, 2) AS forward_yield_pct,
round(abs(toFloat64(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date)) * 12
- sumIf(toFloat64(dv.cash_amount), dv.ex_dividend_date > px.last_day - INTERVAL 1 YEAR))
/ toFloat64(any(px.close_price)) * 100, 2) AS gap_abs_pp
FROM px, dv
WHERE dv.ex_dividend_date <= px.last_day
GROUP BY px.month_start, px.last_day
ORDER BY px.month_startKatika Aug 2024 dirisha hilo lilishikilia malipo 11, likichapisha 4.57% kama trailing dhidi ya 5.08% kama forward. Katika Jul 2026 lilishikilia malipo 13 kwa kiwango cha kila mwezi kilichotangazwa cha $0.271, likichapisha 5.49% kama trailing dhidi ya 5.09% kama forward, zikiwa na tofauti ya 0.4 points. Mwaka unaozunguka ambao unanasa hundi ya kumi na tatu huongeza takwimu ya trailing kwa takribani sehemu ya kumi na mbili bila mabadiliko yoyote katika dividend yenyewe. Hisa za dividend ya kila mwezi inashughulikia ratiba hiyo, na Rekodi ya malipo ya Realty Income inaorodhesha kila hundi.
Mikataba hii inatofautiana kwa kiasi gani katika soko?
Hisa moja ni kisa cha pekee. Jedwali hapa chini linafanya mahesabu yote mawili kwa kila mlipaji wa dividend aliyoorodheshwa nchini Marekani mwenye thamani ya soko inayozidi dola bilioni moja, yakigawanywa kulingana na marudio ya malipo.
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH universe AS (
SELECT ticker,
argMax(price, date) AS last_price
FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios
WHERE date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios)
AND price >= 5
AND market_cap >= 1000000000
GROUP BY ticker
),
paid AS (
SELECT ticker,
sum(cash_amount) AS ttm_cash,
argMax(cash_amount, ex_dividend_date) AS latest_cash,
argMax(frequency, ex_dividend_date) AS pay_frequency
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
AND cash_amount > 0
AND frequency IN (1, 2, 4, 12)
AND ex_dividend_date > today() - INTERVAL 1 YEAR
AND ex_dividend_date <= today()
GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT multiIf(d.pay_frequency = 12, 'monthly',
d.pay_frequency = 4, 'quarterly',
d.pay_frequency = 2, 'semi-annual',
'annual') AS schedule,
count() AS payers,
round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(d.ttm_cash) / toFloat64(u.last_price) * 100,
cityHash64(u.ticker)), 2) AS median_trailing_pct,
round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(d.latest_cash) * d.pay_frequency / toFloat64(u.last_price) * 100,
cityHash64(u.ticker)), 2) AS median_forward_pct,
round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(abs(toFloat64(d.latest_cash) * d.pay_frequency - toFloat64(d.ttm_cash))
/ toFloat64(u.last_price) * 100,
cityHash64(u.ticker)), 3) AS median_gap_pp,
round(quantileDeterministic(0.9)(abs(toFloat64(d.latest_cash) * d.pay_frequency - toFloat64(d.ttm_cash))
/ toFloat64(u.last_price) * 100,
cityHash64(u.ticker)), 3) AS p90_gap_pp,
round(100 * countIf(abs(toFloat64(d.latest_cash) * d.pay_frequency - toFloat64(d.ttm_cash))
/ toFloat64(u.last_price) * 100 >= 0.5) / count(), 1) AS pct_gap_over_half_point
FROM universe AS u
INNER JOIN paid AS d ON u.ticker = d.ticker
GROUP BY schedule
ORDER BY payers DESCKundi kubwa zaidi ni walipaji wa quarterly, wakiwa na majina 1128, wakiwa na median trailing yield ya 1.93% dhidi ya median forward yield ya 2.03%. Katika median, mikataba hiyo miwili inatofautiana kwa 0.03 points. Usambazaji huu una mkia: 8.7% ya kundi hilo inatofautiana kwa angalau nusu ya asilimia, na pengo la asilimia tisini ni 0.357 points. Nusu ya asilimia kwenye yield ya asilimia tatu ni sehemu ya sita ya namba hiyo, ambayo ndiyo tofauti kati ya mfumo wa uchunguzi kuibua jina na kuliruka. Kundi la monthly, lenye majina 21, lina pengo la wastani la 0.484 points.
Kwa kiwango badala ya mbinu, nini kinachozingatiwa kama dividend yield nzuri huweka usambazaji wa soko katika sehemu moja, na dividend yield ni nini huanzia kwenye uwiano wenyewe.
Kwa nini vichujio viwili vinatoa dividend yield tofauti?
- Mkataba wa utendaji. Mtoa huduma mmoja hufanya hesabu ya mwaka (annualize) kulingana na tangazo la hivi karibuni, mwingine hujumlisha malipo ya miezi kumi na miwili iliyopita. Huu ndio utofauti ambao ukurasa huu wote unahusu.
- Mahali ambapo kipindi kinapoishia. Kipindi cha siku mia tatu sitini na tano kinaweza kuwa na malipo manne au matano kwa kampuni inayolipa kila robo mwaka, au malipo kumi na mawili au kumi na matatu kwa inayolipa kila mwezi.
- Dividends za kipekee (special dividends). Malipo ya mara moja hubaki ndani ya kipindi cha mwaka mmoja cha hesabu. Baadhi ya watoa huduma huiacha kwenye namba ya juu (numerator), wengine huiondoa, na malipo makubwa ya kipekee hubadilisha sana takwimu hiyo ya nyuma.
- Bei ya msingi. Yield iliyohesabiwa kwa bei ya kufunga ya jana usiku hutofautiana na ile iliyohesabiwa saa nane mchana.
- Ukurasa wa kampuni yenyewe. Tovuti za mahusiano ya wawekezaji karibu kila mara huchapisha kiwango cha mwaka kilichotangazwa, ambacho ndicho namba ya juu ya mbele (forward numerator), mara nyingi dhidi ya bei ambayo si ya moja kwa moja. Karatasi za mfuko (fund sheets) hunukuu 30 day SEC yield au distribution yield, ambazo ni mbinu nyingine mbili za ziada.
Jinsi namba hizi zinavyojengwa
Trailing yield hapa hujumlisha dividends za kawaida za fedha taslimu zenye ex-dividend date ndani ya siku mia tatu sitini na tano zinazoishia kila wakati wa usomaji, ikigawanywa kwa bei ya kufunga ya kikao hicho. Forward yield huzidisha malipo ya hivi karibuni ya kawaida kwa mzunguko wa malipo uliowasilishwa nayo, ikigawanywa kwa bei hiyo hiyo. Distributions zisizo za kawaida hutengwa kutoka kwa zote mbili. Bei hutoka kwenye pau za dakika za kikao cha kawaida kwa saa za New York. Watoa huduma wanaojumuisha malipo ya kipekee, au wanaofanya hesabu ya mwaka kwa kutumia malipo tofauti, hupata takwimu tofauti kutoka kwa rekodi zilezile za msingi.
Maswali yanayoulizwa mara kwa mara kuhusu trailing dhidi ya forward dividend yield
TTM dividend yield ni nini?
TTM inamaanisha miezi kumi na miwili iliyopita (trailing twelve months). TTM dividend yield hujumlisha kila dividend iliyolipwa katika mwaka uliopita na kugawanya kwa bei ya sasa ya hisa, jambo ambalo hupima fedha ambazo tayari zimelipwa badala ya kiwango kinachotarajiwa.
Ni ipi iliyo bora, trailing au forward dividend yield?
Hakuna iliyo sahihi zaidi. Trailing hupima kile ambacho mwenye hisa alikusanya katika mwaka uliopita, na forward huonyesha kiwango cha sasa kilichotangazwa kwa msingi wa mwaka. Mtu yeyote anayelinganisha mapato yaliyokwisha kupokelewa anataka takwimu ya trailing, na yeyote anayepiga bei ya kiwango ambacho kampuni hulipa leo anataka takwimu ya forward.
Kwa nini broker wangu anaonyesha dividend yield tofauti na ile ya ukurasa wa wawekezaji wa kampuni?
Kurasa za mahusiano ya wawekezaji kwa kawaida huchapisha kiwango cha mwaka kilichotangazwa, ambacho ndicho namba ya juu (numerator) ya forward, mara nyingi dhidi ya bei ambayo si ya moja kwa moja (live). Broker au mfumo wa kuchuja (screener) unaweza kuwa unajumlisha miezi kumi na miwili iliyopita badala yake. Namba zote mbili zinaweza kuwa sahihi kimahesabu kwa wakati mmoja.
Je, kupunguzwa kwa dividend huonekana kwenye trailing yield mara moja?
Hapana. Marekebisho huingia kwenye takwimu ya forward kwa malipo ya kwanza madogo, na huingia kwenye takwimu ya trailing malipo moja baada ya nyingine katika kipindi cha mwaka unaofuata. Katika dirisha la 3M hapo juu, kanuni hizo mbili zilikuwa na tofauti ya 2.36 points katika Jun 2024 na tofauti ya 0.06 points kufikia Jul 2026.
Kila takwimu hapo juu ni matokeo ya swali lililohifadhiwa (stored query) kuhusu rekodi za dividend zilizowasilishwa na bei halisi za kikao cha soko. Fungua paneli yoyote ili kusoma SQL, au fanya mahesabu hayo hayo mawili kwenye ticker unayofuatilia katika terminal ya Strasmore.