{"slug":"what-is-the-term-premium","qid":"front_vs_long","label":"Month over month change in the 3 month bill and the 10 year, in basis points","post_title":"What Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?","post_url":"/blog/what-is-the-term-premium#q-front_vs_long","columns":["month","month_label","front_end_delta_bp","ten_year_delta_bp"],"rows":[{"month":"2024-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2024","front_end_delta_bp":-36.7,"ten_year_delta_bp":-15},{"month":"2024-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2024","front_end_delta_bp":-20.4,"ten_year_delta_bp":37.2},{"month":"2024-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2024","front_end_delta_bp":-9.8,"ten_year_delta_bp":26},{"month":"2024-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2024","front_end_delta_bp":-22.9,"ten_year_delta_bp":3.6},{"month":"2025-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-4.8,"ten_year_delta_bp":23.8},{"month":"2025-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-1.1,"ten_year_delta_bp":-17.8},{"month":"2025-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2025","front_end_delta_bp":0.4,"ten_year_delta_bp":-17.1},{"month":"2025-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-1.3,"ten_year_delta_bp":-0.1},{"month":"2025-05-01","month_label":"May 2025","front_end_delta_bp":3.9,"ten_year_delta_bp":14.5},{"month":"2025-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2025","front_end_delta_bp":6,"ten_year_delta_bp":-4},{"month":"2025-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-0.9,"ten_year_delta_bp":0.8},{"month":"2025-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-10.8,"ten_year_delta_bp":-12.7},{"month":"2025-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-23.9,"ten_year_delta_bp":-14.4},{"month":"2025-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-8.8,"ten_year_delta_bp":-5.9},{"month":"2025-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-4.1,"ten_year_delta_bp":3.2},{"month":"2025-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2025","front_end_delta_bp":-25.8,"ten_year_delta_bp":4.9},{"month":"2026-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2026","front_end_delta_bp":-1.4,"ten_year_delta_bp":7},{"month":"2026-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2026","front_end_delta_bp":2.2,"ten_year_delta_bp":-8.8},{"month":"2026-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2026","front_end_delta_bp":3.1,"ten_year_delta_bp":12},{"month":"2026-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2026","front_end_delta_bp":-2.3,"ten_year_delta_bp":7.3},{"month":"2026-05-01","month_label":"May 2026","front_end_delta_bp":-1.1,"ten_year_delta_bp":16.5},{"month":"2026-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2026","front_end_delta_bp":12.5,"ten_year_delta_bp":-1.4},{"month":"2026-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2026","front_end_delta_bp":5.6,"ten_year_delta_bp":12.9},{"month":"2026-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2026","front_end_delta_bp":1,"ten_year_delta_bp":8.5},{"month":"2026-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2026","front_end_delta_bp":21.6,"ten_year_delta_bp":30.5},{"month":"2026-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2026","front_end_delta_bp":7.7,"ten_year_delta_bp":25.1}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(mo)                           AS month,\n    formatDateTime(mo, '%b %Y')            AS month_label,\n    round((bill_3m - prior_bill) * 100, 1) AS front_end_delta_bp,\n    round((ten_yr - prior_ten) * 100, 1)   AS ten_year_delta_bp\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT\n        mo,\n        bill_3m,\n        ten_yr,\n        lagInFrame(bill_3m) OVER (ORDER BY mo ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_bill,\n        lagInFrame(ten_yr)  OVER (ORDER BY mo ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prior_ten\n    FROM\n    (\n        SELECT\n            toStartOfMonth(date)          AS mo,\n            avg(toFloat64(yield_3_month)) AS bill_3m,\n            avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year)) AS ten_yr\n        FROM global_markets.treasury_yields\n        WHERE date >= today() - 790 AND yield_10_year > 0\n        GROUP BY mo\n    )\n)\nWHERE prior_bill > 0\nORDER BY mo","computed_at":"2026-10-05T15:00:35.983267+00:00","elapsed":0.033576332}