{"slug":"what-is-the-term-premium","qid":"forward_split","label":"The 5 year, the 10 year, and the implied 5y5y forward rate","post_title":"What Is the Term Premium in Bond Yields?","post_url":"/blog/what-is-the-term-premium#q-forward_split","columns":["month","month_label","spot_5y_pct","spot_10y_pct","forward_5y5y_pct"],"rows":[{"month":"2024-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2024","spot_5y_pct":3.49,"spot_10y_pct":3.71,"forward_5y5y_pct":3.94},{"month":"2024-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2024","spot_5y_pct":3.91,"spot_10y_pct":4.1,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.28},{"month":"2024-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2024","spot_5y_pct":4.23,"spot_10y_pct":4.36,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.48},{"month":"2024-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2024","spot_5y_pct":4.25,"spot_10y_pct":4.39,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.53},{"month":"2025-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2025","spot_5y_pct":4.43,"spot_10y_pct":4.63,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.83},{"month":"2025-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2025","spot_5y_pct":4.28,"spot_10y_pct":4.45,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.62},{"month":"2025-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2025","spot_5y_pct":4.04,"spot_10y_pct":4.28,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.52},{"month":"2025-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.91,"spot_10y_pct":4.28,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.64},{"month":"2025-05-01","month_label":"May 2025","spot_5y_pct":4.02,"spot_10y_pct":4.42,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.82},{"month":"2025-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.96,"spot_10y_pct":4.38,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.8},{"month":"2025-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.95,"spot_10y_pct":4.39,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.83},{"month":"2025-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.79,"spot_10y_pct":4.26,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.74},{"month":"2025-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.66,"spot_10y_pct":4.12,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.58},{"month":"2025-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.65,"spot_10y_pct":4.06,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.48},{"month":"2025-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.67,"spot_10y_pct":4.09,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.51},{"month":"2025-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2025","spot_5y_pct":3.7,"spot_10y_pct":4.14,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.58},{"month":"2026-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2026","spot_5y_pct":3.78,"spot_10y_pct":4.21,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.65},{"month":"2026-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2026","spot_5y_pct":3.68,"spot_10y_pct":4.13,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.57},{"month":"2026-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2026","spot_5y_pct":3.85,"spot_10y_pct":4.25,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.64},{"month":"2026-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2026","spot_5y_pct":3.94,"spot_10y_pct":4.32,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.7},{"month":"2026-05-01","month_label":"May 2026","spot_5y_pct":4.15,"spot_10y_pct":4.48,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.82},{"month":"2026-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2026","spot_5y_pct":4.21,"spot_10y_pct":4.47,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.73},{"month":"2026-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2026","spot_5y_pct":4.33,"spot_10y_pct":4.6,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.87},{"month":"2026-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2026","spot_5y_pct":4.38,"spot_10y_pct":4.68,"forward_5y5y_pct":4.98},{"month":"2026-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2026","spot_5y_pct":4.8,"spot_10y_pct":4.99,"forward_5y5y_pct":5.18},{"month":"2026-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2026","spot_5y_pct":5.01,"spot_10y_pct":5.24,"forward_5y5y_pct":5.47}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(toStartOfMonth(date))                AS month,\n    formatDateTime(toStartOfMonth(date), '%b %Y') AS month_label,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(yield_5_year)), 2)        AS spot_5y_pct,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year)), 2)       AS spot_10y_pct,\n    round((10 * avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year)) - 5 * avg(toFloat64(yield_5_year))) / 5, 2) AS forward_5y5y_pct\nFROM global_markets.treasury_yields\nWHERE date >= today() - 760\n  AND yield_5_year > 0\n  AND yield_10_year > 0\nGROUP BY toStartOfMonth(date)\nORDER BY toStartOfMonth(date)","computed_at":"2026-10-05T15:00:35.578904+00:00","elapsed":0.033088413}