{"slug":"what-is-the-3m10y-spread","qid":"inversions","label":"inversions","post_title":"what-is-the-3m10y-spread","post_url":"/blog/what-is-the-3m10y-spread#q-inversions","columns":["began","ended","start_date","months_inverted","deepest_month_bps","average_depth_bps"],"rows":[{"began":"Jun 1989","ended":"Aug 1989","start_date":"1989-06-01","months_inverted":3,"deepest_month_bps":-16,"average_depth_bps":-11},{"began":"Nov 1989","ended":"Dec 1989","start_date":"1989-11-01","months_inverted":2,"deepest_month_bps":-7,"average_depth_bps":-6},{"began":"Jul 2000","ended":"Jan 2001","start_date":"2000-07-01","months_inverted":7,"deepest_month_bps":-70,"average_depth_bps":-42},{"began":"Aug 2006","ended":"May 2007","start_date":"2006-08-01","months_inverted":10,"deepest_month_bps":-52,"average_depth_bps":-34},{"began":"May 2019","ended":"Sep 2019","start_date":"2019-05-01","months_inverted":5,"deepest_month_bps":-36,"average_depth_bps":-17},{"began":"Feb 2020","ended":"Feb 2020","start_date":"2020-02-01","months_inverted":1,"deepest_month_bps":-4,"average_depth_bps":-4},{"began":"Nov 2022","ended":"Nov 2024","start_date":"2022-11-01","months_inverted":25,"deepest_month_bps":-173,"average_depth_bps":-115},{"began":"Mar 2025","ended":"Apr 2025","start_date":"2025-03-01","months_inverted":2,"deepest_month_bps":-6,"average_depth_bps":-5},{"began":"Jun 2025","ended":"Aug 2025","start_date":"2025-06-01","months_inverted":3,"deepest_month_bps":-4,"average_depth_bps":-3}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    formatDateTime(min(month), '%b %Y')   AS began,\n    formatDateTime(max(month), '%b %Y')   AS ended,\n    toString(min(month))                  AS start_date,\n    count()                               AS months_inverted,\n    toInt32(round(min(spread_bps)))       AS deepest_month_bps,\n    toInt32(round(avg(spread_bps)))       AS average_depth_bps\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT\n        month,\n        spread_bps,\n        sum(if(spread_bps < 0, 0, 1)) OVER (ORDER BY month ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS run_id\n    FROM\n    (\n        SELECT\n            toStartOfMonth(date)                                              AS month,\n            avg(toFloat64(yield_10_year) - toFloat64(yield_3_month)) * 100    AS spread_bps\n        FROM global_markets.treasury_yields\n        WHERE date >= toDate('1985-01-01')\n          AND yield_3_month > 0\n          AND yield_10_year > 0\n        GROUP BY month\n    )\n)\nWHERE spread_bps < 0\nGROUP BY run_id\nORDER BY start_date","computed_at":"2026-09-17T15:51:58.107644+00:00","elapsed":0.004768168}