{"slug":"upcoming-ex-dividend-dates","qid":"capture_test","label":"Every mega-cap ex-dividend event of the past six months: price path from the pre-ex close","post_title":"Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates: Stocks This Week","post_url":"/blog/upcoming-ex-dividend-dates#q-capture_test","columns":["checkpoint","events","avg_dividend_pct","avg_move_pct","median_move_pct","pct_back_above_pre_ex"],"rows":[{"checkpoint":"1 ex-day open","events":68,"avg_dividend_pct":0.67,"avg_move_pct":-0.42,"median_move_pct":-0.43,"pct_back_above_pre_ex":27.9},{"checkpoint":"2 ex-day close","events":68,"avg_dividend_pct":0.67,"avg_move_pct":-0.63,"median_move_pct":-0.26,"pct_back_above_pre_ex":41.2},{"checkpoint":"3 one session later","events":68,"avg_dividend_pct":0.67,"avg_move_pct":-0.86,"median_move_pct":-0.76,"pct_back_above_pre_ex":39.7},{"checkpoint":"4 five sessions later","events":68,"avg_dividend_pct":0.67,"avg_move_pct":-0.33,"median_move_pct":0.39,"pct_back_above_pre_ex":55.9},{"checkpoint":"5 ten sessions later","events":68,"avg_dividend_pct":0.67,"avg_move_pct":1.53,"median_move_pct":0.84,"pct_back_above_pre_ex":55.9}],"shape":"table","sql":"WITH rth AS (\n    SELECT ticker,\n           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,\n           argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_px,\n           argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS open_px,\n           countIf((toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS bars\n    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs\n    WHERE ticker IN ('AAPL', 'MSFT', 'JNJ', 'KO', 'PG', 'XOM', 'CVX', 'JPM', 'HD', 'MCD',\n                     'PEP', 'ABBV', 'MRK', 'PFE', 'VZ', 'T', 'CSCO', 'IBM', 'WMT', 'CAT',\n                     'BAC', 'WFC', 'C', 'GS', 'MS', 'UNH', 'LLY', 'AMGN', 'BMY', 'GILD',\n                     'TXN', 'QCOM', 'AVGO', 'ADP', 'LMT', 'RTX', 'HON', 'GE', 'MMM', 'UPS',\n                     'LOW', 'TGT', 'COST', 'SBUX', 'NKE', 'DIS', 'CMCSA', 'DUK', 'SO', 'NEE')\n      AND window_start >= toDateTime(today() - 190)\n    GROUP BY ticker, d\n    HAVING bars > 200\n),\nseq AS (\n    SELECT ticker, d, open_px,\n           lagInFrame(close_px, 1) OVER w AS pre_close,\n           close_px AS ex_close,\n           leadInFrame(close_px, 1) OVER w AS c1,\n           leadInFrame(close_px, 5) OVER w AS c5,\n           leadInFrame(close_px, 10) OVER w AS c10\n    FROM rth\n    WINDOW w AS (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY d ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND 10 FOLLOWING)\n),\nev AS (\n    SELECT s.ticker AS ticker, s.d AS ex_d, s.pre_close AS pre_close, s.open_px AS ex_open,\n           s.ex_close AS ex_close, s.c1 AS c1, s.c5 AS c5, s.c10 AS c10,\n           max(dv.cash_amount) AS div_amt\n    FROM seq s\n    JOIN global_markets.stocks_dividends dv ON dv.ticker = s.ticker AND dv.ex_dividend_date = s.d\n    WHERE dv.cash_amount > 0\n      AND dv.distribution_type = 'recurring'\n      AND s.d >= today() - 160\n      AND s.pre_close > 0 AND s.c1 > 0 AND s.c5 > 0 AND s.c10 > 0\n    GROUP BY s.ticker, s.d, s.pre_close, s.open_px, s.ex_close, s.c1, s.c5, s.c10\n),\npaths AS (\n    SELECT ticker, ex_d, pre_close, div_amt,\n           arrayJoin([('1 ex-day open', ex_open),\n                      ('2 ex-day close', ex_close),\n                      ('3 one session later', c1),\n                      ('4 five sessions later', c5),\n                      ('5 ten sessions later', c10)]) AS chk\n    FROM ev\n)\nSELECT chk.1 AS checkpoint,\n       count() AS events,\n       round(avg(100 * div_amt / pre_close), 2) AS avg_dividend_pct,\n       round(avg(100 * (chk.2 - pre_close) / pre_close), 2) AS avg_move_pct,\n       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(100 * (chk.2 - pre_close) / pre_close, cityHash64(ticker, ex_d)), 2) AS median_move_pct,\n       round(100 * countIf(chk.2 >= pre_close) / count(), 1) AS pct_back_above_pre_ex\nFROM paths\nGROUP BY checkpoint\nORDER BY checkpoint","computed_at":"2026-08-25T13:00:22.457800+00:00","elapsed":10.920328812}