{"slug":"treasury-curve-2026-h1","qid":"curve_twist","label":"The H1 2026 move per maturity, split into quarters: the hump sits squarely on the 2-year","post_title":"Treasury Yield Curve, H1 2026: Twist, Not Shift","post_url":"/blog/treasury-curve-2026-h1#q-curve_twist","columns":["maturity","q1_change_bp","q2_change_bp","h1_change_bp"],"rows":[{"maturity":"1-month","q1_change_bp":2,"q2_change_bp":-4,"h1_change_bp":-2},{"maturity":"3-month","q1_change_bp":5,"q2_change_bp":17,"h1_change_bp":22},{"maturity":"1-year","q1_change_bp":21,"q2_change_bp":30,"h1_change_bp":51},{"maturity":"2-year","q1_change_bp":32,"q2_change_bp":35,"h1_change_bp":67},{"maturity":"5-year","q1_change_bp":18,"q2_change_bp":27,"h1_change_bp":45},{"maturity":"10-year","q1_change_bp":11,"q2_change_bp":14,"h1_change_bp":25},{"maturity":"30-year","q1_change_bp":2,"q2_change_bp":3,"h1_change_bp":5}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"WITH\n    (SELECT (yield_1_month, yield_3_month, yield_1_year, yield_2_year, yield_5_year, yield_10_year, yield_30_year) FROM global_markets.treasury_yields\n     WHERE date >= toDate('2026-01-01') AND date <= toDate('2026-06-30') ORDER BY date ASC LIMIT 1) AS jan_row,\n    (SELECT (yield_1_month, yield_3_month, yield_1_year, yield_2_year, yield_5_year, yield_10_year, yield_30_year) FROM global_markets.treasury_yields\n     WHERE date >= toDate('2026-01-01') AND date <= toDate('2026-03-31') ORDER BY date DESC LIMIT 1) AS mar_row,\n    (SELECT (yield_1_month, yield_3_month, yield_1_year, yield_2_year, yield_5_year, yield_10_year, yield_30_year) FROM global_markets.treasury_yields\n     WHERE date >= toDate('2026-01-01') AND date <= toDate('2026-06-30') ORDER BY date DESC LIMIT 1) AS jun_row\nSELECT z.1 AS maturity,\n       round((z.3 - z.2) * 100, 0) AS q1_change_bp,\n       round((z.4 - z.3) * 100, 0) AS q2_change_bp,\n       round((z.4 - z.2) * 100, 0) AS h1_change_bp\nFROM (\n    SELECT arrayJoin(arrayZip(['1-month','3-month','1-year','2-year','5-year','10-year','30-year'],\n        [jan_row.1, jan_row.2, jan_row.3, jan_row.4, jan_row.5, jan_row.6, jan_row.7],\n        [mar_row.1, mar_row.2, mar_row.3, mar_row.4, mar_row.5, mar_row.6, mar_row.7],\n        [jun_row.1, jun_row.2, jun_row.3, jun_row.4, jun_row.5, jun_row.6, jun_row.7])) AS z\n)","computed_at":"2026-07-26T06:16:30.321459+00:00","elapsed":0.038038051}