{"slug":"spcx-decline-from-peak","qid":"ipo_comps","label":"Sessions from listing to the first close below the first print: SPCX vs four recent IPOs","post_title":"SPCX: SpaceX Stock Price Decline From Peak","post_url":"/blog/spcx-decline-from-peak#q-ipo_comps","columns":["ticker","listed","issue_price","first_rth_open","open_vs_issue_pct","open_vs_issue_pct_abs","sessions_in_window","closes_below_first_print","first_break","break_label","break_session_n"],"rows":[{"ticker":"CRWV","listed":"2025-03-28","issue_price":40,"first_rth_open":39,"open_vs_issue_pct":-2.5,"open_vs_issue_pct_abs":2.5,"sessions_in_window":17,"closes_below_first_print":3,"first_break":"2","break_label":"Mar 31, 2025","break_session_n":2},{"ticker":"KLAR","listed":"2025-09-10","issue_price":40,"first_rth_open":52,"open_vs_issue_pct":30,"open_vs_issue_pct_abs":30,"sessions_in_window":18,"closes_below_first_print":18,"first_break":"1","break_label":"Sep 10, 2025","break_session_n":1},{"ticker":"MDLN","listed":"2025-12-17","issue_price":29,"first_rth_open":35,"open_vs_issue_pct":20.7,"open_vs_issue_pct_abs":20.7,"sessions_in_window":16,"closes_below_first_print":0,"first_break":"never in window","break_label":"never in window","break_session_n":0},{"ticker":"CBRS","listed":"2026-05-14","issue_price":185,"first_rth_open":350,"open_vs_issue_pct":89.2,"open_vs_issue_pct_abs":89.2,"sessions_in_window":17,"closes_below_first_print":17,"first_break":"1","break_label":"May 14, 2026","break_session_n":1},{"ticker":"SPCX","listed":"2026-06-12","issue_price":135,"first_rth_open":150,"open_vs_issue_pct":11.1,"open_vs_issue_pct_abs":11.1,"sessions_in_window":16,"closes_below_first_print":1,"first_break":"16","break_label":"Jul 7, 2026","break_session_n":16}],"shape":"table","sql":"WITH daily AS (\n    SELECT ticker,\n        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,\n        argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) AS rth_open,\n        argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS rth_close\n    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs\n    WHERE ((ticker = 'CRWV' AND window_start >= '2025-03-28 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2025-04-23 00:00:00')\n        OR (ticker = 'KLAR' AND window_start >= '2025-09-10 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2025-10-06 00:00:00')\n        OR (ticker = 'MDLN' AND window_start >= '2025-12-17 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-01-12 00:00:00')\n        OR (ticker = 'CBRS' AND window_start >= '2026-05-14 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-06-09 00:00:00')\n        OR (ticker = 'SPCX' AND window_start >= '2026-06-12 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-07-08 00:00:00'))\n      AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199\n    GROUP BY ticker, session_date\n),\nw AS (\n    SELECT ticker, session_date, rth_close,\n        row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY session_date) AS rn,\n        first_value(rth_open) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY session_date) AS d1_open\n    FROM daily\n),\nagg AS (\n    SELECT ticker,\n        min(session_date) AS first_session,\n        any(d1_open) AS day1_open,\n        count() AS sessions_in_window,\n        countIf(rth_close < d1_open) AS closes_below,\n        minIf(toInt32(rn), rth_close < d1_open) AS break_rn,\n        minIf(session_date, rth_close < d1_open) AS break_d\n    FROM w GROUP BY ticker\n)\nSELECT a.ticker AS ticker,\n    toString(a.first_session) AS listed,\n    round(l.issue_px, 2) AS issue_price,\n    round(a.day1_open, 2) AS first_rth_open,\n    round((a.day1_open / l.issue_px - 1) * 100, 1) AS open_vs_issue_pct,\n    round(abs((a.day1_open / l.issue_px - 1) * 100), 1) AS open_vs_issue_pct_abs,\n    a.sessions_in_window AS sessions_in_window,\n    a.closes_below AS closes_below_first_print,\n    if(a.closes_below > 0, toString(a.break_rn), 'never in window') AS first_break,\n    if(a.closes_below > 0, formatDateTime(a.break_d, '%b %e, %Y'), 'never in window') AS break_label,\n    a.break_rn AS break_session_n\nFROM agg a\nINNER JOIN (\n    SELECT ticker, min(listing_date) AS ld, argMin(toFloat64(final_issue_price), listing_date) AS issue_px\n    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos\n    WHERE ticker IN ('SPCX', 'CBRS', 'MDLN', 'CRWV', 'KLAR') AND listing_date >= '2025-01-01' AND ipo_status = 'history'\n    GROUP BY ticker\n) l ON a.ticker = l.ticker\nORDER BY a.first_session","computed_at":"2026-08-20T13:25:26.474331+00:00","elapsed":1.768280889}