{"slug":"reading-an-event-contract-ladder","qid":"threshold_trace","label":"threshold_trace","post_title":"reading-an-event-contract-ladder","post_url":"/blog/reading-an-event-contract-ladder#q-threshold_trace","columns":["date","prob_above_pct","threshold_label"],"rows":[{"date":"2026-05-15","prob_above_pct":28.6,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-18","prob_above_pct":31.8,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-19","prob_above_pct":25.2,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-20","prob_above_pct":33.4,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-21","prob_above_pct":33.3,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-22","prob_above_pct":38.4,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-26","prob_above_pct":43.6,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-27","prob_above_pct":43.4,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-28","prob_above_pct":51,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-05-29","prob_above_pct":52.2,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-01","prob_above_pct":56.7,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-02","prob_above_pct":58.1,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-03","prob_above_pct":47.7,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-04","prob_above_pct":52.5,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-05","prob_above_pct":19.7,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-08","prob_above_pct":21.7,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-09","prob_above_pct":19.2,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-10","prob_above_pct":10,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-11","prob_above_pct":20.7,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-12","prob_above_pct":20.8,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-15","prob_above_pct":40.8,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-16","prob_above_pct":29.3,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-17","prob_above_pct":14,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-18","prob_above_pct":22.3,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-22","prob_above_pct":12.2,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-23","prob_above_pct":2,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-24","prob_above_pct":1,"threshold_label":"760"},{"date":"2026-06-25","prob_above_pct":0,"threshold_label":"760"}],"shape":"series","sql":"WITH\n    pinned AS\n    (\n        SELECT max(date) AS as_of\n        FROM global_markets.options_greeks\n        WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n          AND date <= '2026-05-29'\n    ),\n    target AS\n    (\n        SELECT\n            expiration_date                                             AS expiry,\n            toUInt32(round(avg(toFloat64(underlying_close)) / 10) * 10)  AS k\n        FROM global_markets.options_greeks\n        WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n          AND date = (SELECT as_of FROM pinned)\n          AND iv_converged = 1\n          AND volume > 0\n          AND delta > 0.01\n          AND delta < 0.99\n          AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45\n          AND toDayOfWeek(expiration_date) = 5\n        GROUP BY expiration_date\n        ORDER BY sum(volume) DESC\n        LIMIT 1\n    ),\n    daily AS\n    (\n        SELECT\n            date,\n            toUInt32(round(toFloat64(strike_price))) AS strike,\n            avg(toFloat64(option_close))             AS call_price\n        FROM global_markets.options_greeks\n        WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n          AND expiration_date = (SELECT expiry FROM target)\n          AND date >= (SELECT as_of FROM pinned) - 14\n          AND date <= (SELECT expiry FROM target)\n          AND iv_converged = 1\n          AND volume > 0\n          AND delta > 0\n          AND abs(toInt32(round(toFloat64(strike_price))) - toInt32((SELECT k FROM target))) = 10\n        GROUP BY date, strike\n    )\nSELECT\n    toString(a.date)                                                 AS date,\n    round(100 * greatest((a.call_price - b.call_price) / 20, 0), 1)   AS prob_above_pct,\n    toString((SELECT k FROM target))                                  AS threshold_label\nFROM daily AS a\nINNER JOIN daily AS b ON b.date = a.date AND b.strike = a.strike + 20\nORDER BY a.date","computed_at":"2026-10-01T15:25:00.285440+00:00","elapsed":0.005478606}