{"slug":"ratio-spreads-explained","qid":"tail","label":"AAPL 25-session moves since January 2021, by size","post_title":"Ratio Spreads: Breakevens and Naked Risk","post_url":"/blog/ratio-spreads-explained#q-tail","columns":["move_bucket","window_count","share_of_windows_pct"],"rows":[{"move_bucket":"down more than 5%","window_count":299,"share_of_windows_pct":21.7},{"move_bucket":"down 0 to 5%","window_count":272,"share_of_windows_pct":19.8},{"move_bucket":"up 0 to 5%","window_count":292,"share_of_windows_pct":21.2},{"move_bucket":"up 5 to 10%","window_count":283,"share_of_windows_pct":20.6},{"move_bucket":"up 10 to 15%","window_count":149,"share_of_windows_pct":10.8},{"move_bucket":"up more than 15%","window_count":80,"share_of_windows_pct":5.8}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"WITH\n    daily AS\n    (\n        SELECT\n            date,\n            toFloat64(max(close)) AS close_px\n        FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs\n        WHERE ticker = 'AAPL'\n          AND date >= '2021-01-04'\n          AND date <= '2026-07-31'\n        GROUP BY date\n    ),\n    indexed AS\n    (\n        SELECT\n            date,\n            close_px,\n            row_number() OVER (ORDER BY date) AS n\n        FROM daily\n    ),\n    moves AS\n    (\n        SELECT 100 * (b.close_px / a.close_px - 1) AS fwd_move_pct\n        FROM indexed AS a\n        INNER JOIN indexed AS b ON b.n = a.n + 25\n    ),\n    totals AS\n    (\n        SELECT count() AS all_windows FROM moves\n    )\nSELECT\n    multiIf(\n        fwd_move_pct < -5,  'down more than 5%',\n        fwd_move_pct <  0,  'down 0 to 5%',\n        fwd_move_pct <  5,  'up 0 to 5%',\n        fwd_move_pct < 10,  'up 5 to 10%',\n        fwd_move_pct < 15,  'up 10 to 15%',\n                            'up more than 15%')  AS move_bucket,\n    count()                                       AS window_count,\n    round(100 * count() / any(t.all_windows), 1)  AS share_of_windows_pct\nFROM moves AS m\nCROSS JOIN totals AS t\nGROUP BY move_bucket\nORDER BY min(m.fwd_move_pct)","computed_at":"2026-08-13T15:21:57.525607+00:00","elapsed":0.003331583}