{"slug":"put-credit-spread-win-rate-and-breakeven","qid":"monthly_premium","label":"monthly_premium","post_title":"put-credit-spread-win-rate-and-breakeven","post_url":"/blog/lang/de/put-credit-spread-win-rate-and-breakeven#q-monthly_premium","columns":["period","entry_count","credit_pct_of_width","breakeven_distance_pct"],"rows":[{"period":"08/2021","entry_count":22,"credit_pct_of_width":14.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.17},{"period":"09/2021","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":16.6,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.48},{"period":"10/2021","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":17.7,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.43},{"period":"11/2021","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":16.2,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.28},{"period":"12/2021","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":17.3,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.92},{"period":"01/2022","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":18.2,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.87},{"period":"02/2022","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":19.3,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.77},{"period":"03/2022","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":20.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":5.05},{"period":"04/2022","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":19.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.04},{"period":"05/2022","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":23.9,"breakeven_distance_pct":5.32},{"period":"06/2022","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":23.9,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.9},{"period":"07/2022","entry_count":17,"credit_pct_of_width":22.9,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.59},{"period":"08/2022","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":21.2,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.96},{"period":"09/2022","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":23.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.59},{"period":"10/2022","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":23.5,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.95},{"period":"11/2022","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":23.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.27},{"period":"12/2022","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":23.6,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.91},{"period":"01/2023","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":21.3,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.48},{"period":"02/2023","entry_count":17,"credit_pct_of_width":19.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.5},{"period":"03/2023","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":22.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.6},{"period":"04/2023","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":18.5,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.9},{"period":"05/2023","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":17.6,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.94},{"period":"06/2023","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":16.9,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.14},{"period":"07/2023","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":16.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.02},{"period":"08/2023","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":18.3,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.6},{"period":"09/2023","entry_count":17,"credit_pct_of_width":17.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.2},{"period":"10/2023","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":19.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.89},{"period":"11/2023","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":18.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.23},{"period":"12/2023","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":17.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.07},{"period":"01/2024","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":17.7,"breakeven_distance_pct":1.9},{"period":"02/2024","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":18.2,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.01},{"period":"03/2024","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":19,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.02},{"period":"04/2024","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":20.1,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.3},{"period":"05/2024","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":19.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":1.98},{"period":"06/2024","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":18.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":1.93},{"period":"07/2024","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":17.8,"breakeven_distance_pct":1.84},{"period":"08/2024","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":18.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.36},{"period":"09/2024","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":18.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.77},{"period":"10/2024","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":18.7,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.78},{"period":"11/2024","entry_count":20,"credit_pct_of_width":18.1,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.18},{"period":"12/2024","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":16.4,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.1},{"period":"01/2025","entry_count":14,"credit_pct_of_width":19.3,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.44},{"period":"02/2025","entry_count":17,"credit_pct_of_width":18.3,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.56},{"period":"03/2025","entry_count":21,"credit_pct_of_width":20.5,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.36},{"period":"04/2025","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":21.9,"breakeven_distance_pct":4.47},{"period":"05/2025","entry_count":19,"credit_pct_of_width":20,"breakeven_distance_pct":3.21},{"period":"06/2025","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":19.2,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.85},{"period":"07/2025","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":17.9,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.47},{"period":"08/2025","entry_count":18,"credit_pct_of_width":17.3,"breakeven_distance_pct":2.34},{"period":"09/2025","entr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AS\n(\n    SELECT\n        date                                              AS entry_date,\n        argMin(expiration_date, abs(days_to_expiry - 45)) AS expiry\n    FROM global_markets.options_greeks\n    WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n      AND lower(option_type) IN ('put', 'p')\n      AND iv_converged = 1\n      AND volume > 0\n      AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 38 AND 52\n      AND date >= '2021-08-01'\n    GROUP BY date\n),\nshort_leg AS\n(\n    SELECT\n        e.entry_date                                                    AS entry_date,\n        e.expiry                                                        AS expiry,\n        argMin(toFloat64(g.strike_price), abs(abs(g.delta) - 0.30))     AS short_strike,\n        argMin(toFloat64(g.option_close), abs(abs(g.delta) - 0.30))     AS short_mark,\n        argMin(toFloat64(g.underlying_close), abs(abs(g.delta) - 0.30)) AS spot\n    FROM global_markets.options_greeks AS g\n    INNER JOIN expiries AS e\n        ON g.date = e.entry_date AND g.expiration_date = e.expiry\n    WHERE g.underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n      AND lower(g.option_type) IN ('put', 'p')\n      AND g.iv_converged = 1\n      AND g.volume > 0\n      AND g.date >= '2021-08-01'\n      AND abs(g.delta) BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.40\n    GROUP BY e.entry_date, e.expiry\n),\nlong_leg AS\n(\n    SELECT\n        s.entry_date                                                                             AS entry_date,\n        argMin(toFloat64(g.strike_price), abs(toFloat64(g.strike_price) - (s.short_strike - 10))) AS long_strike,\n        argMin(toFloat64(g.option_close), abs(toFloat64(g.strike_price) - (s.short_strike - 10))) AS long_mark\n    FROM global_markets.options_greeks AS g\n    INNER JOIN short_leg AS s\n        ON g.date = s.entry_date AND g.expiration_date = s.expiry\n    WHERE g.underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n      AND lower(g.option_type) IN ('put', 'p')\n      AND g.iv_converged = 1\n      AND g.date >= '2021-08-01'\n      AND toFloat64(g.strike_price) BETWEEN s.short_strike - 12 AND s.short_strike - 8\n    GROUP BY s.entry_date\n),\nspreads AS\n(\n    SELECT\n        s.entry_date                   AS entry_date,\n        s.spot                         AS spot,\n        s.short_strike                 AS short_strike,\n        s.short_strike - l.long_strike AS width,\n        s.short_mark - l.long_mark     AS credit\n    FROM short_leg AS s\n    INNER JOIN long_leg AS l ON s.entry_date = l.entry_date\n    WHERE l.long_strike < s.short_strike\n)\nSELECT\n    formatDateTime(toStartOfMonth(entry_date), '%m/%Y') AS period,\n    count()                                             AS entry_count,\n    round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(100 * credit / width, toUInt32(toUnixTimestamp(entry_date))), 1) AS credit_pct_of_width,\n    round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(100 * (spot - (short_strike - credit)) / spot, toUInt32(toUnixTimestamp(entry_date))), 2) AS breakeven_distance_pct\nFROM spreads\nWHERE credit > 0\n  AND width BETWEEN 9 AND 11\nGROUP BY toStartOfMonth(entry_date)\nORDER BY toStartOfMonth(entry_date)","computed_at":"2026-10-01T15:49:13.547830+00:00","elapsed":0.024101126}