{"slug":"probability-of-touch-vs-probability-of-itm","qid":"delta_buckets","label":"SPY option delta buckets, with the doubling rule applied (Jan to Jun 2026)","post_title":"Probability of Touch vs Probability ITM","post_url":"/blog/probability-of-touch-vs-probability-of-itm#q-delta_buckets","columns":["short_strike","approx_itm_pct","approx_touch_pct","contract_days"],"rows":[{"short_strike":"5 delta","approx_itm_pct":6.2,"approx_touch_pct":12.4,"contract_days":5598},{"short_strike":"10 delta","approx_itm_pct":9.9,"approx_touch_pct":19.8,"contract_days":8602},{"short_strike":"15 delta","approx_itm_pct":14.9,"approx_touch_pct":29.8,"contract_days":6758},{"short_strike":"20 delta","approx_itm_pct":20,"approx_touch_pct":39.9,"contract_days":5730},{"short_strike":"25 delta","approx_itm_pct":25,"approx_touch_pct":49.9,"contract_days":5211},{"short_strike":"30 delta","approx_itm_pct":30,"approx_touch_pct":59.9,"contract_days":4768},{"short_strike":"35 delta","approx_itm_pct":35,"approx_touch_pct":69.9,"contract_days":4427},{"short_strike":"40 delta","approx_itm_pct":40,"approx_touch_pct":80,"contract_days":4260},{"short_strike":"45 delta","approx_itm_pct":43.8,"approx_touch_pct":87.5,"contract_days":2073}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"WITH graded AS (\n    SELECT\n        toUInt16(round(100 * abs(delta) / 5) * 5) AS delta_bucket,\n        abs(delta)                                AS abs_delta\n    FROM global_markets.options_greeks\n    WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n      AND date >= '2026-01-01'\n      AND date <  '2026-07-01'\n      AND iv_converged = 1\n      AND volume > 0\n      AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45\n      AND abs(delta) BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.45\n)\nSELECT\n    concat(toString(delta_bucket), ' delta') AS short_strike,\n    round(100 * avg(abs_delta), 1)           AS approx_itm_pct,\n    round(200 * avg(abs_delta), 1)           AS approx_touch_pct,\n    count()                                  AS contract_days\nFROM graded\nGROUP BY delta_bucket\nORDER BY delta_bucket","computed_at":"2026-08-07T16:05:46.193802+00:00","elapsed":0.002736105}