{"slug":"off-the-run-vs-on-the-run-treasuries","qid":"daily_moves","label":"daily_moves","post_title":"off-the-run-vs-on-the-run-treasuries","post_url":"/blog/off-the-run-vs-on-the-run-treasuries#q-daily_moves","columns":["month","month_label","median_abs_move_bps","p90_abs_move_bps"],"rows":[{"month":"2024-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2024","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":7},{"month":"2024-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2024","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":13.2},{"month":"2024-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2024","median_abs_move_bps":4,"p90_abs_move_bps":7},{"month":"2025-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2025","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":9},{"month":"2025-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2025","median_abs_move_bps":4,"p90_abs_move_bps":9.2},{"month":"2025-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2025","median_abs_move_bps":4,"p90_abs_move_bps":9},{"month":"2025-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2025","median_abs_move_bps":6,"p90_abs_move_bps":11},{"month":"2025-05-01","month_label":"May 2025","median_abs_move_bps":4,"p90_abs_move_bps":8},{"month":"2025-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2025","median_abs_move_bps":4,"p90_abs_move_bps":7.2},{"month":"2025-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2025","median_abs_move_bps":3.5,"p90_abs_move_bps":7.9},{"month":"2025-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2025","median_abs_move_bps":2,"p90_abs_move_bps":5},{"month":"2025-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2025","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":5},{"month":"2025-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2025","median_abs_move_bps":2,"p90_abs_move_bps":5.9},{"month":"2025-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2025","median_abs_move_bps":2.5,"p90_abs_move_bps":5.3},{"month":"2025-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2025","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":5},{"month":"2026-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2026","median_abs_move_bps":2,"p90_abs_move_bps":4.2},{"month":"2026-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2026","median_abs_move_bps":2,"p90_abs_move_bps":6.4},{"month":"2026-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2026","median_abs_move_bps":5,"p90_abs_move_bps":8.9},{"month":"2026-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2026","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":4},{"month":"2026-05-01","month_label":"May 2026","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":7.3},{"month":"2026-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2026","median_abs_move_bps":3,"p90_abs_move_bps":8},{"month":"2026-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2026","median_abs_move_bps":3.5,"p90_abs_move_bps":6},{"month":"2026-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2026","median_abs_move_bps":4,"p90_abs_move_bps":6},{"month":"2026-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2026","median_abs_move_bps":2.5,"p90_abs_move_bps":8.5}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(toStartOfMonth(d))                                AS month,\n    formatDateTime(toStartOfMonth(d), '%b %Y')                 AS month_label,\n    round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(chg_bps, toUInt32(d)), 1) AS median_abs_move_bps,\n    round(quantileDeterministic(0.9)(chg_bps, toUInt32(d)), 1) AS p90_abs_move_bps\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT\n        d,\n        prev,\n        abs(cur - prev) * 100 AS chg_bps\n    FROM\n    (\n        SELECT\n            date                                AS d,\n            toFloat64(ifNull(yield_10_year, 0)) AS cur,\n            any(toFloat64(ifNull(yield_10_year, 0)))\n                OVER (ORDER BY date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS prev\n        FROM global_markets.treasury_yields\n        WHERE date >= today() - 780\n          AND yield_10_year > 0\n    )\n)\nWHERE prev > 0\n  AND d >= toStartOfMonth(today() - 700)\nGROUP BY month, month_label\nHAVING count() >= 5\nORDER BY month","computed_at":"2026-09-29T14:50:44.393750+00:00","elapsed":0.071447576}