{"slug":"multi-agent-ai-trading-systems","qid":"daily_noise","label":"How big a typical session is: SPY close-to-close moves by size band, calendar 2025","post_title":"Multi-Agent AI Trading Systems: What Is Real","post_url":"/blog/multi-agent-ai-trading-systems#q-daily_noise","columns":["move_bucket","sessions","pct_of_sessions"],"rows":[{"move_bucket":"under 0.25%","sessions":62,"pct_of_sessions":24.9},{"move_bucket":"0.25 to 0.5%","sessions":60,"pct_of_sessions":24.1},{"move_bucket":"0.5 to 1%","sessions":70,"pct_of_sessions":28.1},{"move_bucket":"1 to 2%","sessions":44,"pct_of_sessions":17.7},{"move_bucket":"2% and up","sessions":13,"pct_of_sessions":5.2}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"WITH daily AS (\n    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,\n           argMax(close, window_start) AS close_px\n    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs\n    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'\n      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2025-01-01')\n      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2025-12-31')\n      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60\n           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959\n    GROUP BY d\n),\npaired AS (\n    SELECT d, close_px,\n           any(close_px) OVER (ORDER BY d ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING) AS prev_px\n    FROM daily\n),\nrets AS (\n    SELECT d, round(100 * (toFloat64(close_px) / toFloat64(prev_px) - 1), 3) AS ret_pct\n    FROM paired\n    WHERE prev_px > 0\n)\nSELECT multiIf(abs(ret_pct) < 0.25, 'under 0.25%',\n               abs(ret_pct) < 0.5, '0.25 to 0.5%',\n               abs(ret_pct) < 1.0, '0.5 to 1%',\n               abs(ret_pct) < 2.0, '1 to 2%',\n               '2% and up') AS move_bucket,\n       count() AS sessions,\n       round(100 * count() / sum(count()) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_sessions\nFROM rets\nGROUP BY move_bucket\nORDER BY min(abs(ret_pct))","computed_at":"2026-07-31T03:10:03.704908+00:00","elapsed":0.025681269}