{"slug":"market-making-in-prediction-markets","qid":"outcome_polarization","label":"outcome_polarization","post_title":"market-making-in-prediction-markets","post_url":"/blog/market-making-in-prediction-markets#q-outcome_polarization","columns":["session","session_label","coin_flip_pct","near_settled_pct","contract_count"],"rows":[{"session":"2026-04-01","session_label":"Apr 1","coin_flip_pct":18.8,"near_settled_pct":41.7,"contract_count":218},{"session":"2026-04-02","session_label":"Apr 2","coin_flip_pct":20.4,"near_settled_pct":39.3,"contract_count":211},{"session":"2026-04-06","session_label":"Apr 6","coin_flip_pct":19.8,"near_settled_pct":42.5,"contract_count":207},{"session":"2026-04-07","session_label":"Apr 7","coin_flip_pct":21.2,"near_settled_pct":40.8,"contract_count":184},{"session":"2026-04-08","session_label":"Apr 8","coin_flip_pct":15.1,"near_settled_pct":35.6,"contract_count":239},{"session":"2026-04-09","session_label":"Apr 9","coin_flip_pct":15.7,"near_settled_pct":35.6,"contract_count":216},{"session":"2026-04-10","session_label":"Apr 10","coin_flip_pct":12.6,"near_settled_pct":40,"contract_count":270},{"session":"2026-04-13","session_label":"Apr 13","coin_flip_pct":11.7,"near_settled_pct":40.2,"contract_count":256},{"session":"2026-04-14","session_label":"Apr 14","coin_flip_pct":11.3,"near_settled_pct":44.5,"contract_count":265},{"session":"2026-04-15","session_label":"Apr 15","coin_flip_pct":11.4,"near_settled_pct":50.2,"contract_count":263},{"session":"2026-04-16","session_label":"Apr 16","coin_flip_pct":10.5,"near_settled_pct":53.3,"contract_count":276},{"session":"2026-04-17","session_label":"Apr 17","coin_flip_pct":6.8,"near_settled_pct":60.4,"contract_count":293},{"session":"2026-04-20","session_label":"Apr 20","coin_flip_pct":9.4,"near_settled_pct":52.3,"contract_count":298},{"session":"2026-04-21","session_label":"Apr 21","coin_flip_pct":8.8,"near_settled_pct":51.6,"contract_count":318},{"session":"2026-04-22","session_label":"Apr 22","coin_flip_pct":9.5,"near_settled_pct":50.3,"contract_count":296},{"session":"2026-04-23","session_label":"Apr 23","coin_flip_pct":9.7,"near_settled_pct":50.3,"contract_count":300},{"session":"2026-04-24","session_label":"Apr 24","coin_flip_pct":8.2,"near_settled_pct":53.8,"contract_count":316},{"session":"2026-04-27","session_label":"Apr 27","coin_flip_pct":8.4,"near_settled_pct":57.3,"contract_count":274},{"session":"2026-04-28","session_label":"Apr 28","coin_flip_pct":8.6,"near_settled_pct":56.3,"contract_count":279},{"session":"2026-04-29","session_label":"Apr 29","coin_flip_pct":9.3,"near_settled_pct":57.3,"contract_count":248},{"session":"2026-04-30","session_label":"Apr 30","coin_flip_pct":7.4,"near_settled_pct":60.9,"contract_count":271},{"session":"2026-05-01","session_label":"May 1","coin_flip_pct":6.4,"near_settled_pct":60.1,"contract_count":311},{"session":"2026-05-04","session_label":"May 4","coin_flip_pct":6.6,"near_settled_pct":62.5,"contract_count":301},{"session":"2026-05-05","session_label":"May 5","coin_flip_pct":7.1,"near_settled_pct":65.8,"contract_count":225},{"session":"2026-05-06","session_label":"May 6","coin_flip_pct":5,"near_settled_pct":66.7,"contract_count":303},{"session":"2026-05-07","session_label":"May 7","coin_flip_pct":4.8,"near_settled_pct":69.2,"contract_count":292},{"session":"2026-05-08","session_label":"May 8","coin_flip_pct":5.1,"near_settled_pct":69.2,"contract_count":234},{"session":"2026-05-11","session_label":"May 11","coin_flip_pct":4.4,"near_settled_pct":75.3,"contract_count":275},{"session":"2026-05-12","session_label":"May 12","coin_flip_pct":3.8,"near_settled_pct":73.1,"contract_count":264},{"session":"2026-05-13","session_label":"May 13","coin_flip_pct":3.3,"near_settled_pct":78.5,"contract_count":209},{"session":"2026-05-14","session_label":"May 14","coin_flip_pct":1.8,"near_settled_pct":86.6,"contract_count":284}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(date)                        AS session,\n    formatDateTime(date, '%b %e')         AS session_label,\n    round(100 * countIf(abs(delta) >= 0.4 AND abs(delta) <= 0.6) / count(), 1) AS coin_flip_pct,\n    round(100 * countIf(abs(delta) < 0.1 OR abs(delta) > 0.9) / count(), 1)    AS near_settled_pct,\n    count()                               AS contract_count\nFROM global_markets.options_greeks\nWHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n  AND expiration_date = '2026-05-15'\n  AND date >= '2026-04-01'\n  AND date <= '2026-05-15'\n  AND iv_converged = 1\n  AND volume > 0\nGROUP BY date\nORDER BY date","computed_at":"2026-09-24T15:00:11.972580+00:00","elapsed":0.003059336}