{"slug":"macro-picture-entering-h2-2026","qid":"baseline_cpi_yoy","label":"CPI year-over-year, computed from the index against the same month a year earlier","post_title":"Macro Picture Entering H2 2026, With Receipts","post_url":"/blog/macro-picture-entering-h2-2026#q-baseline_cpi_yoy","columns":["period_start","cpi_index","cpi_yoy_pct","core_yoy_pct","accel_since_jan_pts"],"rows":[{"period_start":"2026-01-01","cpi_index":326.6,"cpi_yoy_pct":2.4,"core_yoy_pct":2.5,"accel_since_jan_pts":0},{"period_start":"2026-02-01","cpi_index":327.5,"cpi_yoy_pct":2.4,"core_yoy_pct":2.5,"accel_since_jan_pts":0},{"period_start":"2026-03-01","cpi_index":330.3,"cpi_yoy_pct":3.3,"core_yoy_pct":2.6,"accel_since_jan_pts":0.9},{"period_start":"2026-04-01","cpi_index":332.4,"cpi_yoy_pct":3.8,"core_yoy_pct":2.7,"accel_since_jan_pts":1.4},{"period_start":"2026-05-01","cpi_index":334,"cpi_yoy_pct":4.2,"core_yoy_pct":2.8,"accel_since_jan_pts":1.8},{"period_start":"2026-06-01","cpi_index":332.6,"cpi_yoy_pct":3.5,"core_yoy_pct":2.6,"accel_since_jan_pts":1.1}],"shape":"table","sql":"SELECT toString(date) AS period_start,\n    round(cpi, 1) AS cpi_index,\n    round((cpi / any(cpi_prior) - 1) * 100, 1) AS cpi_yoy_pct,\n    round((cpi_core / any(core_prior) - 1) * 100, 1) AS core_yoy_pct,\n    round(cpi_yoy_pct - first_value(cpi_yoy_pct) OVER (ORDER BY date), 1) AS accel_since_jan_pts\nFROM global_markets.inflation\nINNER JOIN (\n    SELECT date + INTERVAL 1 YEAR AS match_date, cpi AS cpi_prior, cpi_core AS core_prior\n    FROM global_markets.inflation\n    WHERE date >= toDate('2025-01-01') AND date <= toDate('2025-06-01')\n) AS p ON date = p.match_date\nWHERE date >= toDate('2026-01-01') AND date <= toDate('2026-06-01')\nGROUP BY date, cpi, cpi_core\nORDER BY date","computed_at":"2026-08-11T14:23:38.959917+00:00","elapsed":0.002922465}