{"slug":"iron-condor-vs-iron-butterfly","qid":"expected_move","label":"At-the-money implied volatility and the 30-day expected move it prices, May 2026","post_title":"Iron Condor vs Iron Butterfly: Break-Evens","post_url":"/blog/iron-condor-vs-iron-butterfly#q-expected_move","columns":["symbol","atm_iv_pct","expected_move_30d_pct"],"rows":[{"symbol":"AMD","atm_iv_pct":68.5,"expected_move_30d_pct":19.65},{"symbol":"NVDA","atm_iv_pct":43.1,"expected_move_30d_pct":12.37},{"symbol":"MSFT","atm_iv_pct":28.5,"expected_move_30d_pct":8.18},{"symbol":"AAPL","atm_iv_pct":23.5,"expected_move_30d_pct":6.73},{"symbol":"KO","atm_iv_pct":18.4,"expected_move_30d_pct":5.29},{"symbol":"SPY","atm_iv_pct":15.4,"expected_move_30d_pct":4.43}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"SELECT\n    underlying_symbol                                                       AS symbol,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(implied_volatility)) * 100, 1)                      AS atm_iv_pct,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(implied_volatility)) * sqrt(30.0 / 365.0) * 100, 2) AS expected_move_30d_pct\nFROM global_markets.options_greeks\nWHERE underlying_symbol IN ('SPY', 'KO', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'AMD')\n  AND date BETWEEN '2026-05-01' AND '2026-05-29'\n  AND iv_converged = 1\n  AND volume > 0\n  AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45\n  AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05\nGROUP BY symbol\nHAVING count() > 50\nORDER BY expected_move_30d_pct DESC","computed_at":"2026-08-07T16:19:34.587255+00:00","elapsed":0.002492683}