{"slug":"how-markets-price-fed-rate-odds","qid":"straddle_chain","label":"TLT call deltas read as implied probabilities: chain of Sep 15, 2025, expiring Sep 19","post_title":"How Markets Price Fed Rate Odds","post_url":"/blog/how-markets-price-fed-rate-odds#q-straddle_chain","columns":["strike","implied_prob_above_pct","implied_vol_pct","contract_volume"],"rows":[{"strike":85,"implied_prob_above_pct":97.8,"implied_vol_pct":28.7,"contract_volume":48},{"strike":88,"implied_prob_above_pct":90.9,"implied_vol_pct":16,"contract_volume":1466},{"strike":89,"implied_prob_above_pct":81.2,"implied_vol_pct":15.3,"contract_volume":946},{"strike":90,"implied_prob_above_pct":59,"implied_vol_pct":13.8,"contract_volume":11026},{"strike":91,"implied_prob_above_pct":30.7,"implied_vol_pct":15.2,"contract_volume":5166},{"strike":92,"implied_prob_above_pct":16.3,"implied_vol_pct":15.6,"contract_volume":9065},{"strike":93,"implied_prob_above_pct":5.6,"implied_vol_pct":17.9,"contract_volume":2195},{"strike":94,"implied_prob_above_pct":3.7,"implied_vol_pct":21.6,"contract_volume":1931},{"strike":95,"implied_prob_above_pct":1.4,"implied_vol_pct":22.1,"contract_volume":2739}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"SELECT round(toFloat64(strike_price), 0) AS strike,\n       round(avg(delta) * 100, 1) AS implied_prob_above_pct,\n       round(avg(implied_volatility) * 100, 1) AS implied_vol_pct,\n       sum(volume) AS contract_volume\nFROM global_markets.options_greeks\nWHERE underlying_symbol = 'TLT'\n  AND date = toDate('2025-09-15')\n  AND expiration_date = toDate('2025-09-19')\n  AND delta > 0\n  AND iv_converged = 1\n  AND volume > 0\n  AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.06\nGROUP BY strike\nORDER BY strike","computed_at":"2026-08-03T10:41:15.618124+00:00","elapsed":0.002396461}