{"slug":"how-markets-price-fed-rate-odds","qid":"path_by_month","label":"Front-end Treasury yields by month, January 2024 to June 2026","post_title":"How Markets Price Fed Rate Odds","post_url":"/blog/how-markets-price-fed-rate-odds#q-path_by_month","columns":["month","yield_3m_pct","yield_1y_pct","yield_2y_pct","path_spread_bps"],"rows":[{"month":"2024-01-01","yield_3m_pct":5.45,"yield_1y_pct":4.79,"yield_2y_pct":4.32,"path_spread_bps":-66},{"month":"2024-02-01","yield_3m_pct":5.44,"yield_1y_pct":4.92,"yield_2y_pct":4.54,"path_spread_bps":-52},{"month":"2024-03-01","yield_3m_pct":5.47,"yield_1y_pct":4.99,"yield_2y_pct":4.59,"path_spread_bps":-48},{"month":"2024-04-01","yield_3m_pct":5.44,"yield_1y_pct":5.14,"yield_2y_pct":4.87,"path_spread_bps":-31},{"month":"2024-05-01","yield_3m_pct":5.45,"yield_1y_pct":5.16,"yield_2y_pct":4.86,"path_spread_bps":-30},{"month":"2024-06-01","yield_3m_pct":5.51,"yield_1y_pct":5.11,"yield_2y_pct":4.74,"path_spread_bps":-40},{"month":"2024-07-01","yield_3m_pct":5.43,"yield_1y_pct":4.9,"yield_2y_pct":4.5,"path_spread_bps":-53},{"month":"2024-08-01","yield_3m_pct":5.3,"yield_1y_pct":4.43,"yield_2y_pct":3.97,"path_spread_bps":-87},{"month":"2024-09-01","yield_3m_pct":4.92,"yield_1y_pct":4.03,"yield_2y_pct":3.62,"path_spread_bps":-89},{"month":"2024-10-01","yield_3m_pct":4.72,"yield_1y_pct":4.2,"yield_2y_pct":3.97,"path_spread_bps":-52},{"month":"2024-11-01","yield_3m_pct":4.62,"yield_1y_pct":4.33,"yield_2y_pct":4.26,"path_spread_bps":-29},{"month":"2024-12-01","yield_3m_pct":4.39,"yield_1y_pct":4.23,"yield_2y_pct":4.23,"path_spread_bps":-16},{"month":"2025-01-01","yield_3m_pct":4.34,"yield_1y_pct":4.18,"yield_2y_pct":4.27,"path_spread_bps":-16},{"month":"2025-02-01","yield_3m_pct":4.33,"yield_1y_pct":4.19,"yield_2y_pct":4.21,"path_spread_bps":-14},{"month":"2025-03-01","yield_3m_pct":4.34,"yield_1y_pct":4.06,"yield_2y_pct":3.97,"path_spread_bps":-27},{"month":"2025-04-01","yield_3m_pct":4.32,"yield_1y_pct":3.95,"yield_2y_pct":3.78,"path_spread_bps":-37},{"month":"2025-05-01","yield_3m_pct":4.36,"yield_1y_pct":4.09,"yield_2y_pct":3.92,"path_spread_bps":-28},{"month":"2025-06-01","yield_3m_pct":4.42,"yield_1y_pct":4.06,"yield_2y_pct":3.89,"path_spread_bps":-36},{"month":"2025-07-01","yield_3m_pct":4.41,"yield_1y_pct":4.08,"yield_2y_pct":3.88,"path_spread_bps":-34},{"month":"2025-08-01","yield_3m_pct":4.3,"yield_1y_pct":3.89,"yield_2y_pct":3.7,"path_spread_bps":-41},{"month":"2025-09-01","yield_3m_pct":4.07,"yield_1y_pct":3.66,"yield_2y_pct":3.57,"path_spread_bps":-41},{"month":"2025-10-01","yield_3m_pct":3.98,"yield_1y_pct":3.61,"yield_2y_pct":3.52,"path_spread_bps":-36},{"month":"2025-11-01","yield_3m_pct":3.94,"yield_1y_pct":3.66,"yield_2y_pct":3.55,"path_spread_bps":-28},{"month":"2025-12-01","yield_3m_pct":3.68,"yield_1y_pct":3.54,"yield_2y_pct":3.5,"path_spread_bps":-14},{"month":"2026-01-01","yield_3m_pct":3.67,"yield_1y_pct":3.51,"yield_2y_pct":3.54,"path_spread_bps":-16},{"month":"2026-02-01","yield_3m_pct":3.69,"yield_1y_pct":3.48,"yield_2y_pct":3.47,"path_spread_bps":-21},{"month":"2026-03-01","yield_3m_pct":3.72,"yield_1y_pct":3.67,"yield_2y_pct":3.71,"path_spread_bps":-5},{"month":"2026-04-01","yield_3m_pct":3.7,"yield_1y_pct":3.69,"yield_2y_pct":3.8,"path_spread_bps":0},{"month":"2026-05-01","yield_3m_pct":3.69,"yield_1y_pct":3.79,"yield_2y_pct":4,"path_spread_bps":11},{"month":"2026-06-01","yield_3m_pct":3.81,"yield_1y_pct":3.91,"yield_2y_pct":4.11,"path_spread_bps":10}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT toStartOfMonth(date) AS month,\n       round(avg(toFloat64(yield_3_month)), 2) AS yield_3m_pct,\n       round(avg(toFloat64(yield_1_year)), 2) AS yield_1y_pct,\n       round(avg(toFloat64(yield_2_year)), 2) AS yield_2y_pct,\n       round((avg(toFloat64(yield_1_year)) - avg(toFloat64(yield_3_month))) * 100, 0) AS path_spread_bps\nFROM global_markets.treasury_yields\nWHERE date >= toDate('2024-01-01')\n  AND date <= toDate('2026-06-30')\n  AND yield_3_month IS NOT NULL\n  AND yield_1_year IS NOT NULL\n  AND yield_2_year IS NOT NULL\nGROUP BY month\nORDER BY month","computed_at":"2026-08-03T10:41:15.709137+00:00","elapsed":0.00266653}