{"slug":"how-markets-price-fed-rate-odds","qid":"front_end_2025","label":"The short end of the Treasury curve around the September 2025 FOMC meeting","post_title":"How Markets Price Fed Rate Odds","post_url":"/blog/how-markets-price-fed-rate-odds#q-front_end_2025","columns":["date","yield_3m_pct","yield_1y_pct","yield_2y_pct"],"rows":[{"date":"2025-08-15","yield_3m_pct":4.3,"yield_1y_pct":3.93,"yield_2y_pct":3.75},{"date":"2025-08-18","yield_3m_pct":4.33,"yield_1y_pct":3.93,"yield_2y_pct":3.77},{"date":"2025-08-19","yield_3m_pct":4.3,"yield_1y_pct":3.91,"yield_2y_pct":3.75},{"date":"2025-08-20","yield_3m_pct":4.3,"yield_1y_pct":3.9,"yield_2y_pct":3.74},{"date":"2025-08-21","yield_3m_pct":4.32,"yield_1y_pct":3.95,"yield_2y_pct":3.79},{"date":"2025-08-22","yield_3m_pct":4.27,"yield_1y_pct":3.87,"yield_2y_pct":3.68},{"date":"2025-08-25","yield_3m_pct":4.29,"yield_1y_pct":3.88,"yield_2y_pct":3.73},{"date":"2025-08-26","yield_3m_pct":4.28,"yield_1y_pct":3.85,"yield_2y_pct":3.61},{"date":"2025-08-27","yield_3m_pct":4.26,"yield_1y_pct":3.83,"yield_2y_pct":3.59},{"date":"2025-08-28","yield_3m_pct":4.26,"yield_1y_pct":3.85,"yield_2y_pct":3.62},{"date":"2025-08-29","yield_3m_pct":4.23,"yield_1y_pct":3.83,"yield_2y_pct":3.59},{"date":"2025-09-02","yield_3m_pct":4.2,"yield_1y_pct":3.82,"yield_2y_pct":3.66},{"date":"2025-09-03","yield_3m_pct":4.18,"yield_1y_pct":3.77,"yield_2y_pct":3.61},{"date":"2025-09-04","yield_3m_pct":4.16,"yield_1y_pct":3.76,"yield_2y_pct":3.59},{"date":"2025-09-05","yield_3m_pct":4.07,"yield_1y_pct":3.65,"yield_2y_pct":3.51},{"date":"2025-09-08","yield_3m_pct":4.1,"yield_1y_pct":3.64,"yield_2y_pct":3.49},{"date":"2025-09-09","yield_3m_pct":4.1,"yield_1y_pct":3.68,"yield_2y_pct":3.54},{"date":"2025-09-10","yield_3m_pct":4.09,"yield_1y_pct":3.66,"yield_2y_pct":3.54},{"date":"2025-09-11","yield_3m_pct":4.08,"yield_1y_pct":3.63,"yield_2y_pct":3.52},{"date":"2025-09-12","yield_3m_pct":4.08,"yield_1y_pct":3.66,"yield_2y_pct":3.56},{"date":"2025-09-15","yield_3m_pct":4.06,"yield_1y_pct":3.64,"yield_2y_pct":3.54},{"date":"2025-09-16","yield_3m_pct":4.04,"yield_1y_pct":3.62,"yield_2y_pct":3.51},{"date":"2025-09-17","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.6,"yield_2y_pct":3.52},{"date":"2025-09-18","yield_3m_pct":4.03,"yield_1y_pct":3.61,"yield_2y_pct":3.57},{"date":"2025-09-19","yield_3m_pct":4.03,"yield_1y_pct":3.6,"yield_2y_pct":3.57},{"date":"2025-09-22","yield_3m_pct":4,"yield_1y_pct":3.61,"yield_2y_pct":3.61},{"date":"2025-09-23","yield_3m_pct":4,"yield_1y_pct":3.61,"yield_2y_pct":3.53},{"date":"2025-09-24","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.63,"yield_2y_pct":3.57},{"date":"2025-09-25","yield_3m_pct":4.04,"yield_1y_pct":3.68,"yield_2y_pct":3.64},{"date":"2025-09-26","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.67,"yield_2y_pct":3.63},{"date":"2025-09-29","yield_3m_pct":4.04,"yield_1y_pct":3.65,"yield_2y_pct":3.63},{"date":"2025-09-30","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.68,"yield_2y_pct":3.6},{"date":"2025-10-01","yield_3m_pct":4.01,"yield_1y_pct":3.62,"yield_2y_pct":3.55},{"date":"2025-10-02","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.62,"yield_2y_pct":3.55},{"date":"2025-10-03","yield_3m_pct":4.03,"yield_1y_pct":3.64,"yield_2y_pct":3.58},{"date":"2025-10-06","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.66,"yield_2y_pct":3.6},{"date":"2025-10-07","yield_3m_pct":4.01,"yield_1y_pct":3.65,"yield_2y_pct":3.57},{"date":"2025-10-08","yield_3m_pct":4.01,"yield_1y_pct":3.66,"yield_2y_pct":3.58},{"date":"2025-10-09","yield_3m_pct":4.03,"yield_1y_pct":3.66,"yield_2y_pct":3.6},{"date":"2025-10-10","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.6,"yield_2y_pct":3.52},{"date":"2025-10-14","yield_3m_pct":4.02,"yield_1y_pct":3.58,"yield_2y_pct":3.48},{"date":"2025-10-15","yield_3m_pct":4.03,"yield_1y_pct":3.61,"yield_2y_pct":3.5}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT date,\n       round(toFloat64(yield_3_month), 2) AS yield_3m_pct,\n       round(toFloat64(yield_1_year), 2) AS yield_1y_pct,\n       round(toFloat64(yield_2_year), 2) AS yield_2y_pct\nFROM global_markets.treasury_yields\nWHERE date >= toDate('2025-08-15')\n  AND date <= toDate('2025-10-15')\n  AND yield_3_month IS NOT NULL\n  AND yield_1_year IS NOT NULL\n  AND yield_2_year IS NOT NULL\nORDER BY date","computed_at":"2026-08-03T10:41:15.529691+00:00","elapsed":0.001971664}