{"slug":"how-long-a-losing-streak-is-normal","qid":"streak_odds_by_win_rate","label":"Chance of at least one losing streak of five, eight or ten in a 200 trade series","post_title":"How Long a Losing Streak Is Normal","post_url":"/blog/how-long-a-losing-streak-is-normal#q-streak_odds_by_win_rate","columns":["win_rate_pct","pct_run_of_5","pct_run_of_8","pct_run_of_10"],"rows":[{"win_rate_pct":"75%","pct_run_of_5":13.444,"pct_run_of_8":0.221,"pct_run_of_10":0.014},{"win_rate_pct":"70%","pct_run_of_5":28.627,"pct_run_of_8":0.885,"pct_run_of_10":0.079},{"win_rate_pct":"65%","pct_run_of_5":49.528,"pct_run_of_8":2.796,"pct_run_of_10":0.343},{"win_rate_pct":"60%","pct_run_of_5":71.371,"pct_run_of_8":7.356,"pct_run_of_10":1.199},{"win_rate_pct":"55%","pct_run_of_5":87.969,"pct_run_of_8":16.527,"pct_run_of_10":3.535}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"WITH 200 AS n_trades\nSELECT\n    concat(toString(toUInt8(round(win_rate * 100))), '%') AS win_rate_pct,\n    round(100 * (1 - arraySum(arrayFold(\n        (run_mass, trade) -> arrayPushFront(\n            arrayMap(mass -> mass * (1 - win_rate), arrayPopBack(run_mass)),\n            win_rate * arraySum(run_mass)),\n        range(n_trades),\n        [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]))), 3) AS pct_run_of_5,\n    round(100 * (1 - arraySum(arrayFold(\n        (run_mass, trade) -> arrayPushFront(\n            arrayMap(mass -> mass * (1 - win_rate), arrayPopBack(run_mass)),\n            win_rate * arraySum(run_mass)),\n        range(n_trades),\n        [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]))), 3) AS pct_run_of_8,\n    round(100 * (1 - arraySum(arrayFold(\n        (run_mass, trade) -> arrayPushFront(\n            arrayMap(mass -> mass * (1 - win_rate), arrayPopBack(run_mass)),\n            win_rate * arraySum(run_mass)),\n        range(n_trades),\n        [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]))), 3) AS pct_run_of_10\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT arrayJoin([0.75, 0.70, 0.65, 0.60, 0.55]) AS win_rate\n)\nORDER BY win_rate DESC","computed_at":"2026-08-17T15:25:33.877283+00:00","elapsed":0.027822135}