{"slug":"how-long-a-losing-streak-is-normal","qid":"drawdown_from_a_losing_streak","label":"Drawdown from an eight and a ten loss streak, by risk per trade","post_title":"How Long a Losing Streak Is Normal","post_url":"/blog/how-long-a-losing-streak-is-normal#q-drawdown_from_a_losing_streak","columns":["risk_per_trade","pct_down_after_8_losses","pct_down_after_10_losses","pct_gain_to_recover"],"rows":[{"risk_per_trade":"1%","pct_down_after_8_losses":7.7,"pct_down_after_10_losses":9.6,"pct_gain_to_recover":10.6},{"risk_per_trade":"2%","pct_down_after_8_losses":14.9,"pct_down_after_10_losses":18.3,"pct_gain_to_recover":22.4},{"risk_per_trade":"3%","pct_down_after_8_losses":21.6,"pct_down_after_10_losses":26.3,"pct_gain_to_recover":35.6},{"risk_per_trade":"5%","pct_down_after_8_losses":33.7,"pct_down_after_10_losses":40.1,"pct_gain_to_recover":67}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"SELECT\n    concat(toString(toUInt8(round(risk_fraction * 100))), '%') AS risk_per_trade,\n    round(100 * (1 - pow(1 - risk_fraction, 8)), 1) AS pct_down_after_8_losses,\n    round(100 * (1 - pow(1 - risk_fraction, 10)), 1) AS pct_down_after_10_losses,\n    round(100 * ((1 / pow(1 - risk_fraction, 10)) - 1), 1) AS pct_gain_to_recover\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT arrayJoin([0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05]) AS risk_fraction\n)\nORDER BY risk_fraction","computed_at":"2026-08-17T15:25:34.319419+00:00","elapsed":0.007208953}