{"slug":"gold-vs-real-interest-rates","qid":"real_yield_build","label":"The 10-year real yield, built from the nominal yield and the breakeven","post_title":"Gold vs Real Interest Rates: Does It Hold?","post_url":"/blog/gold-vs-real-interest-rates#q-real_yield_build","columns":["quarter","quarter_label","nominal_10y_pct","breakeven_10y_pct","real_10y_pct"],"rows":[{"quarter":"2005-01-01","quarter_label":"Q1 2005","nominal_10y_pct":4.27,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.62,"real_10y_pct":1.64},{"quarter":"2005-04-01","quarter_label":"Q2 2005","nominal_10y_pct":4.19,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.48,"real_10y_pct":1.71},{"quarter":"2005-07-01","quarter_label":"Q3 2005","nominal_10y_pct":4.13,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.39,"real_10y_pct":1.74},{"quarter":"2005-10-01","quarter_label":"Q4 2005","nominal_10y_pct":4.55,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.41,"real_10y_pct":2.13},{"quarter":"2006-01-01","quarter_label":"Q1 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2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.21,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.27,"real_10y_pct":1.94},{"quarter":"2025-07-01","quarter_label":"Q3 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.25,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.38,"real_10y_pct":1.87},{"quarter":"2025-10-01","quarter_label":"Q4 2025","nominal_10y_pct":4.11,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.27,"real_10y_pct":1.83},{"quarter":"2026-04-01","quarter_label":"Q2 2026","nominal_10y_pct":4.39,"breakeven_10y_pct":2.44,"real_10y_pct":1.95}],"shape":"table","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(toStartOfQuarter(t.date))                                      AS quarter,\n    concat('Q', toString(toQuarter(t.date)), ' ', toString(toYear(t.date))) AS quarter_label,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(t.yield_10_year)), 2)                               AS nominal_10y_pct,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(e.market_10_year)), 2)                              AS breakeven_10y_pct,\n    round(avg(toFloat64(t.yield_10_year) - toFloat64(e.market_10_year)), 2) AS real_10y_pct\nFROM global_markets.treasury_yields AS t\nINNER JOIN global_markets.inflation_expectations AS e ON e.date = t.date\nWHERE t.date >= '2005-01-01'\n  AND t.yield_10_year > 0\n  AND e.market_10_year > 0\nGROUP BY quarter, quarter_label\nORDER BY quarter","computed_at":"2026-10-05T15:05:28.152805+00:00","elapsed":0.002981644}