{"slug":"gold-vs-real-interest-rates","qid":"gld_iv_monthly","label":"GLD implied volatility by month, near-the-money contracts with 20 to 45 days to expiry","post_title":"Gold vs Real Interest Rates: Does It Hold?","post_url":"/blog/gold-vs-real-interest-rates#q-gld_iv_monthly","columns":["month","month_label","median_iv_pct","p90_iv_pct"],"rows":[{"month":"2024-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2024","median_iv_pct":16,"p90_iv_pct":18.2},{"month":"2024-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2024","median_iv_pct":16.8,"p90_iv_pct":18.5},{"month":"2024-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2024","median_iv_pct":15.8,"p90_iv_pct":18.3},{"month":"2024-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2024","median_iv_pct":14.5,"p90_iv_pct":15.7},{"month":"2025-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2025","median_iv_pct":14.3,"p90_iv_pct":15.6},{"month":"2025-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2025","median_iv_pct":15.7,"p90_iv_pct":17.9},{"month":"2025-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2025","median_iv_pct":15.8,"p90_iv_pct":17.1},{"month":"2025-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2025","median_iv_pct":21.3,"p90_iv_pct":26.1},{"month":"2025-05-01","month_label":"May 2025","median_iv_pct":20.2,"p90_iv_pct":23.2},{"month":"2025-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2025","median_iv_pct":18,"p90_iv_pct":20.2},{"month":"2025-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2025","median_iv_pct":15.9,"p90_iv_pct":17.5},{"month":"2025-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2025","median_iv_pct":14.8,"p90_iv_pct":16.4},{"month":"2025-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2025","median_iv_pct":16.8,"p90_iv_pct":18.7},{"month":"2025-10-01","month_label":"Oct 2025","median_iv_pct":22.6,"p90_iv_pct":28.9},{"month":"2025-11-01","month_label":"Nov 2025","median_iv_pct":21,"p90_iv_pct":24.2},{"month":"2025-12-01","month_label":"Dec 2025","median_iv_pct":20.1,"p90_iv_pct":24.1},{"month":"2026-01-01","month_label":"Jan 2026","median_iv_pct":23.5,"p90_iv_pct":38.8},{"month":"2026-02-01","month_label":"Feb 2026","median_iv_pct":30.1,"p90_iv_pct":37.2},{"month":"2026-03-01","month_label":"Mar 2026","median_iv_pct":31.2,"p90_iv_pct":39.5},{"month":"2026-04-01","month_label":"Apr 2026","median_iv_pct":25.9,"p90_iv_pct":33.8},{"month":"2026-05-01","month_label":"May 2026","median_iv_pct":23.2,"p90_iv_pct":26.3},{"month":"2026-06-01","month_label":"Jun 2026","median_iv_pct":23.5,"p90_iv_pct":28.2},{"month":"2026-07-01","month_label":"Jul 2026","median_iv_pct":23,"p90_iv_pct":25.5},{"month":"2026-08-01","month_label":"Aug 2026","median_iv_pct":23.5,"p90_iv_pct":26.7},{"month":"2026-09-01","month_label":"Sep 2026","median_iv_pct":23.3,"p90_iv_pct":26.8}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT\n    toString(toStartOfMonth(date))                                                                 AS month,\n    formatDateTime(toStartOfMonth(date), '%b %Y')                                                  AS month_label,\n    round(100 * quantileDeterministic(0.5)(toFloat64(implied_volatility), cityHash64(ticker)), 1) AS median_iv_pct,\n    round(100 * quantileDeterministic(0.9)(toFloat64(implied_volatility), cityHash64(ticker)), 1) AS p90_iv_pct\nFROM global_markets.options_greeks\nWHERE underlying_symbol = 'GLD'\n  AND iv_converged = 1\n  AND volume > 0\n  AND underlying_close > 0\n  AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45\n  AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05\n  AND date >= toStartOfMonth(today() - 760)\n  AND date <  toStartOfMonth(today())\nGROUP BY month, month_label\nHAVING count() >= 20\nORDER BY month","computed_at":"2026-10-05T15:05:31.393918+00:00","elapsed":2.355308714}