{"slug":"event-contract-collateral-and-max-loss","qid":"return_on_collateral","label":"Return on collateral for each side, by contract price","post_title":"Event Contract Collateral and Max Loss","post_url":"/blog/event-contract-collateral-and-max-loss#q-return_on_collateral","columns":["price_cents","buyer_return_on_collateral_pct","seller_return_on_collateral_pct","breakeven_probability_pct"],"rows":[{"price_cents":20,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":400,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":25,"breakeven_probability_pct":20},{"price_cents":25,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":300,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":33.3,"breakeven_probability_pct":25},{"price_cents":30,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":233.3,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":42.9,"breakeven_probability_pct":30},{"price_cents":35,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":185.7,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":53.8,"breakeven_probability_pct":35},{"price_cents":40,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":150,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":66.7,"breakeven_probability_pct":40},{"price_cents":45,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":122.2,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":81.8,"breakeven_probability_pct":45},{"price_cents":50,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":100,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":100,"breakeven_probability_pct":50},{"price_cents":55,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":81.8,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":122.2,"breakeven_probability_pct":55},{"price_cents":60,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":66.7,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":150,"breakeven_probability_pct":60},{"price_cents":65,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":53.8,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":185.7,"breakeven_probability_pct":65},{"price_cents":70,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":42.9,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":233.3,"breakeven_probability_pct":70},{"price_cents":75,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":33.3,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":300,"breakeven_probability_pct":75},{"price_cents":80,"buyer_return_on_collateral_pct":25,"seller_return_on_collateral_pct":400,"breakeven_probability_pct":80}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"SELECT\n    price_cents,\n    round(100 * (100 - price_cents) / price_cents, 1) AS buyer_return_on_collateral_pct,\n    round(100 * price_cents / (100 - price_cents), 1) AS seller_return_on_collateral_pct,\n    price_cents                                       AS breakeven_probability_pct\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT arrayJoin(range(20, 85, 5)) AS price_cents\n)\nORDER BY price_cents","computed_at":"2026-08-22T04:05:31.502157+00:00","elapsed":0.005559113}