{"slug":"does-ipo-gmp-predict-listing-gains","qid":"listing_day_moves","label":"listing_day_moves","post_title":"does-ipo-gmp-predict-listing-gains","post_url":"/blog/does-ipo-gmp-predict-listing-gains#q-listing_day_moves","columns":["ticker","offer_to_open_pct","open_to_close_pct"],"rows":[{"ticker":"CBRS","offer_to_open_pct":89.2,"open_to_close_pct":-11.1},{"ticker":"FIG","offer_to_open_pct":157.6,"open_to_close_pct":35.9},{"ticker":"BLSH","offer_to_open_pct":143.2,"open_to_close_pct":-24.4},{"ticker":"CRCL","offer_to_open_pct":122.6,"open_to_close_pct":20.6},{"ticker":"MDLN","offer_to_open_pct":20.7,"open_to_close_pct":17.1},{"ticker":"KLAR","offer_to_open_pct":30,"open_to_close_pct":-11.9},{"ticker":"FLY","offer_to_open_pct":55.6,"open_to_close_pct":-13.8},{"ticker":"QNT","offer_to_open_pct":13.3,"open_to_close_pct":-11.2},{"ticker":"INIO","offer_to_open_pct":14.8,"open_to_close_pct":7.4},{"ticker":"VOYG","offer_to_open_pct":125,"open_to_close_pct":-19},{"ticker":"CRWV","offer_to_open_pct":-2.5,"open_to_close_pct":2.6},{"ticker":"CHYM","offer_to_open_pct":59.3,"open_to_close_pct":-13.7}],"shape":"ranking","sql":"WITH day_one AS\n(\n    SELECT\n        i.ticker                                                 AS ticker,\n        i.list_date                                              AS list_date,\n        (toFloat64(d.open_px)  / i.offer_price - 1) * 100        AS offer_to_open,\n        (toFloat64(d.close_px) / i.offer_price - 1) * 100        AS offer_to_close,\n        (toFloat64(d.close_px) / toFloat64(d.open_px) - 1) * 100 AS open_to_close,\n        toFloat64(d.open_px) * toFloat64(d.day_volume)           AS day1_turnover\n    FROM\n    (\n        SELECT\n            ticker,\n            toDate(argMax(listing_date, last_updated))         AS list_date,\n            argMax(toFloat64(final_issue_price), last_updated) AS offer_price\n        FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos\n        WHERE listing_date >= '2017-01-01'\n          AND listing_date <  '2026-09-01'\n          AND final_issue_price > 0\n          AND currency_code = 'USD'\n          AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')\n        GROUP BY ticker\n    ) AS i\n    INNER JOIN\n    (\n        SELECT\n            ticker,\n            date,\n            max(open)   AS open_px,\n            max(close)  AS close_px,\n            max(volume) AS day_volume\n        FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs\n        WHERE date >= '2017-01-01'\n          AND date <  '2026-09-01'\n        GROUP BY ticker, date\n    ) AS d\n        ON d.ticker = i.ticker AND d.date = i.list_date\n    WHERE d.day_volume > 0\n      AND d.open_px > 0\n      AND i.offer_price > 0\n)\nSELECT\n    ticker,\n    round(offer_to_open, 1) AS offer_to_open_pct,\n    round(open_to_close, 1) AS open_to_close_pct\nFROM day_one\nWHERE list_date >= '2025-01-01'\nORDER BY day1_turnover DESC\nLIMIT 12","computed_at":"2026-10-03T15:20:14.260484+00:00","elapsed":0.004532129}