Strasmore Research
Muhtasari wa soko Matt ConnorNa Matt Connor · Imeboreshwa 2026-07-24 · data as of July 24, 2026 · refreshed weekly

Hisa zinazoweza kupata short squeeze wiki hii

Hisa zinazochunguzwa kulingana na days to cover, idadi ya shares short na bei inayoonzeka kwa kutumia takwimu za soko na mwelekeo wa bei.

Hisa zinazopata hali ya short squeeze huchunguzwa kwa mbinu mbili: nafasi ya short inayozidi kiasi cha biashara ya hisa hiyo, na bei ambayo tayari inaongezeka. Ukurasa huu unatumia mbinu hiyo kwenye faili ya hivi karibuni ya short-interest iliyoripotiwa na soko, iliyofiliwa Jun 30, 2026, na kupima mwelekeo wa bei katika vipindi vitano vilivyoishia Jul 22, 2026. Hizi ni mbinu zinazofanana na squeezes za zamani. Hakuna utabiri hapa, na hisa nyingi zenye short nyingi huwa hazipati squeeze.

Soma tarehe kabla ya majina. Sehemu ya short-interest ya ukurasa huu ina umri wa wiki kadhaa kwa sababu ya kanuni, si kwa hitilafu ya mfumo: madalali hutoa ripoti ya nafasi zao za short kwa FINRA mara mbili kwa mwezi kwenye tarehe zilizopangwa za settlement, na faili iliyokusanywa hupatikana hadharani takriban siku nane za biashara baadaye. Takwimu mpya zaidi inayoweza kupatikana na mtu yeyote ni ya Jun 30, 2026, siku 24 zilizopita, wakati mwelekeo wa bei unaendelea hadi Jul 22, 2026. Chochote ambacho upande wa short ulifanya ndani ya pengo hilo haionekani kwa mchujaji yeyote, ikiwemo huu. Kwa nini data ya short interest huwa ina umri wa wiki mbili inaelezea mzunguko wa utoaji ripoti hatua kwa hatua.

UlizaKila data iliyoingizwa na umri wake
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH prints AS (
    SELECT DISTINCT settlement_date AS d
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
    ORDER BY d DESC
    LIMIT 2
),
loaded AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 20 DAY
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY session
    HAVING count() >= 380
),
legs AS (
    SELECT arrayJoin([
        ('Short interest, previous settlement', (SELECT min(d) FROM prints)),
        ('Short interest, latest settlement', (SELECT max(d) FROM prints)),
        ('Price tape, last fully loaded session', (SELECT max(session) FROM loaded))]) AS row
)
SELECT formatDateTime(row.2, '%b %e, %Y') AS as_of_date,
       row.1 AS leg,
       dateDiff('day', row.2, today()) AS age_days
FROM legs

Takwimu mbili za settlement ziko 39 na 24 siku nyuma, ambayo ni mzunguko wa kuhesabu mara mbili kwa mwezi pamoja na ucheleweshaji wa ukusanyaji. Mwelekeo wa bei uko nyuma kwa siku 2, na huo ni ucheleweshaji wa kuingiza data kwenye ghala badala ya kanuni. Umri wote una mipaka, hivyo mfumo unaochelewa utauweka ukurasa huu badala ya kuchapisha tena tarehe ya zamani chini ya kichwa kipya.

Orodha ya hisa za short squeeze: uchunguzi wa sasa

Kila jina hapa chini limevuka vigezo vilevile: idadi ya hisa milioni tano ya wastani wa ujazo wa kila siku, siku tano au zaidi za kucover, na mwendo chanya katika vipindi vitano vilivyoishia Jul 22, 2026. Majina ya 31 yamevuka vigezo vyote hivyo, na 12 yenye msongamano mkubwa zaidi yameonyeshwa hapa. Days to cover ni hisa zilizouzwa short kwa wastani wa ujazo wa kila siku: ni siku ngapi kamili za biashara za hisa hiyo ambazo upande wa short ungehitaji ili kununua nafasi yake nyuma.

UlizaMekanika ya Squeeze: short nyingi kwenye majina yenye liquidity, bei ikipanda
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH latest AS (
    SELECT max(settlement_date) AS d FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
),
sessions AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 20 DAY
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY session
    HAVING count() >= 380
    ORDER BY session DESC
    LIMIT 6
),
crowded AS (
    SELECT ticker, days_to_cover, short_interest
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
    WHERE settlement_date = (SELECT d FROM latest)
      AND avg_daily_volume >= 5000000
      AND days_to_cover >= 5
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
      AND ticker NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
      AND ticker NOT IN (SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
                         WHERE execution_date BETWEEN today() - 60 AND today())
),
tape AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM crowded)
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) IN (SELECT session FROM sessions)
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY ticker, session
),
moves AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           round((argMax(rth_close, session) / argMin(rth_close, session) - 1) * 100, 1) AS return_5d_pct
    FROM tape
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() = 6 AND return_5d_pct > 0
)
SELECT c.ticker AS ticker,
       round(c.days_to_cover, 1) AS days_to_cover,
       round(c.short_interest / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       m.return_5d_pct AS return_5d_pct
FROM crowded c
INNER JOIN moves m ON m.ticker = c.ticker
ORDER BY c.days_to_cover DESC, c.ticker
LIMIT 12

Jina lenye msongamano mkubwa zaidi hapa, MPT, linaonyesha 16.9 days to cover kati ya milioni 138.1 za hisa zilizouzwa short, na ilipanda 2.8% katika vipindi vitano vilivyoishia Jul 22, 2026. Mstari wa mwisho unaonyeshwa ni 6.4 days to cover, ambayo ni sehemu ambapo muundo umekatwa badala ya mwisho wa uchunguzi. Mpangilio ni kwa msongamano badala ya ukubwa, hivyo nafasi ya wastani kwenye tape ndogo inaingia juu kuliko nafasi kubwa zaidi kwenye tape yenye mzunguko mkubwa. Kwa mpangilio wa ukubwa, the most shorted stocks right now huonyesha mbao zote mbili kwa pamoja.

Kigezo cha bei inayopanda kina sababu ya kimekanika. Squeeze ni ununuzi wa lazima unaosababishwa na wafanyabiashara wa short wakifunga nafasi zao, na kufunga short inamaanisha kununua hisa hiyo nyuma, jambo ambalo huanza tu bei inapoelekea kinyume na nafasi hiyo. How a short squeeze works, ikichambuliwa kupitia rekodi za GameStop za mwaka 2021, inaonyesha mfululizo huo kwa namba.

Kanuni, na kile kila moja kinachofuta

Skrini ni maoni yenye namba zilizounganishwa, hivyo hapa ndipo uwanja unapoingia.

UlizaKutoka faili kamili la settlement hadi orodha iliyochujwa, sheria moja baada ya nyingine
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH latest AS (
    SELECT max(settlement_date) AS d FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
),
sessions AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 20 DAY
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY session
    HAVING count() >= 380
    ORDER BY session DESC
    LIMIT 6
),
reported AS (
    SELECT ticker, days_to_cover, avg_daily_volume
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
    WHERE settlement_date = (SELECT d FROM latest)
),
liquid AS (
    SELECT ticker, days_to_cover
    FROM reported
    WHERE avg_daily_volume >= 5000000
      AND days_to_cover IS NOT NULL
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
      AND ticker NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
      AND ticker NOT IN (SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
                         WHERE execution_date BETWEEN today() - 60 AND today())
),
crowded AS (
    SELECT ticker FROM liquid WHERE days_to_cover >= 5
),
tape AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM crowded)
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) IN (SELECT session FROM sessions)
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY ticker, session
),
rising AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           round((argMax(rth_close, session) / argMin(rth_close, session) - 1) * 100, 1) AS return_5d_pct
    FROM tape
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() = 6 AND return_5d_pct > 0
),
tally AS (
    SELECT (SELECT count() FROM reported) AS all_names,
           (SELECT count() FROM liquid) AS liquid_names,
           (SELECT count() FROM crowded) AS crowded_names,
           (SELECT count() FROM rising) AS rising_names
)
SELECT step.1 AS label, step.2 AS names
FROM (
    SELECT arrayJoin([
        ('Every name in the settlement file', all_names),
        ('Liquid: five million shares a day, no leveraged funds', liquid_names),
        ('Crowded: five or more days to cover', crowded_names),
        ('Rising: a positive move over the price window', rising_names)]) AS step
    FROM tally
)

Faili ya Jun 30, 2026 ina dhamana za 22207. Kiwango cha ukwasi na orodha ya kutengwa huacha 883, kiwango cha msongamano hukipunguza hadi 96, na lango la bei inayoongezeka huacha 31. Kila kiwango ni chaguo, na chaguo tofauti hutoa orodha tofauti. Ndiyo maana kanuni hizi zimeelezwa wazi badala ya kuwekwa kwenye fuata (footnote).

Ni kiasi gani cha kila kampuni kinauziwa short

Kielelezo ambacho watu wengi hutafuta ni short interest kama asilimia ya float, na hakipo kwenye data hii. Faili ya soko la hisa hutoa idadi ya hisa zilizouziwa short na wastani wa ujazo wa kila siku, bila kutoa idadi ya hisa yoyote. Kinachoweza kupatikana ni nafasi inayopimwa dhidi ya jumla ya hisa zilizotolewa (total shares outstanding), kwa kuchukua thamani ya soko ya kila kampuni iliyogawanywa kwa bei yake ya hisa.

UlizaMajina yaliyochujwa yaliyopangwa kwa short interest dhidi ya shares outstanding (sio float)
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH latest AS (
    SELECT max(settlement_date) AS d FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
),
sessions AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 20 DAY
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY session
    HAVING count() >= 380
    ORDER BY session DESC
    LIMIT 6
),
crowded AS (
    SELECT ticker, days_to_cover, short_interest
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
    WHERE settlement_date = (SELECT d FROM latest)
      AND avg_daily_volume >= 5000000
      AND days_to_cover >= 5
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
      AND ticker NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
      AND ticker NOT IN (SELECT ticker FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
                         WHERE execution_date BETWEEN today() - 60 AND today())
),
tape AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM crowded)
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) IN (SELECT session FROM sessions)
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY ticker, session
),
rising AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           round((argMax(rth_close, session) / argMin(rth_close, session) - 1) * 100, 1) AS return_5d_pct
    FROM tape
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() = 6 AND return_5d_pct > 0
),
share_count AS (
    SELECT ticker, market_cap / price AS shares_out
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios
    WHERE date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios)
      AND market_cap > 0
      AND price > 0
)
SELECT c.ticker AS ticker,
       round(100.0 * c.short_interest / s.shares_out, 1) AS si_pct_shares_out,
       round(c.short_interest / 1e6, 1) AS shares_short_m,
       round(s.shares_out / 1e6, 0) AS shares_out_m,
       round(c.days_to_cover, 1) AS days_to_cover
FROM crowded c
INNER JOIN rising r ON r.ticker = c.ticker
INNER JOIN share_count s ON s.ticker = c.ticker
ORDER BY si_pct_shares_out DESC, c.ticker
LIMIT 10

KSS inatawala katika asilimia 26.3% ya hisa zilizotolewa zilizouziwa short: milioni 29.9 za hisa dhidi ya milioni 113 za hisa zilizopo. Mistari ya 10 iliyoonyeshwa ndiyo thamani kubwa zaidi miongoni mwa majina yaliyochujwa yenye idadi ya hisa iliyochapishwa, na ya mwisho bado inasoma 15.5%. Soma safu hiyo kama kiwango cha chini na usichukulie kama namba ya float. Float inahesabu tu hisa ambazo kwa kweli zinabadilisha mikono, ikiondoa hisa za ndani (insider stakes) na umiliki mwingine uliofungwa. Float ni denominator ndogo zaidi, hivyo asilimia halisi ya float iliyouziwa short ni kubwa kuliko kila kielelezo kilichoonyeshwa. Kiasi cha ziada kinategemea umiliki wa kila kampuni, ambao ghala hili halihifadhi.

Je, mkusanyiko wa short crowding unakuja au unapungua?

Ripoti moja ni picha ya wakati fulani. Faili hiyo hiyo imekuwepo kwa miaka kadhaa, hivyo swali la soko kote lina jibu la takwimu.

UlizaMajina yenye liquidity kwa siku 5+ na 10+ za ku-cover, settlement baada ya settlement
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH dates AS (
    SELECT DISTINCT settlement_date AS d
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
    ORDER BY d DESC
    LIMIT 12
)
SELECT toString(settlement_date) AS settlement_date,
       countIf(days_to_cover >= 5) AS names_5plus_dtc,
       countIf(days_to_cover >= 10) AS names_10plus_dtc,
       round(quantileExact(0.5)(days_to_cover), 2) AS median_dtc_liquid
FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
WHERE settlement_date IN (SELECT d FROM dates)
  AND avg_daily_volume >= 5000000
  AND days_to_cover IS NOT NULL
  AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
  AND ticker NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
GROUP BY settlement_date
ORDER BY settlement_date

Katika makubaliano yote ya 12 yaliyoonyeshwa, idadi ya majina yenye uliquiditi yenye siku tano au zaidi za kucover ilihama kutoka 58 hadi 96. Upande wa nadra wa usambazaji unabaki kuwa mwembamba sana: 5 majina yalikuwa na siku kumi au zaidi za kucover katika ripoti ya hivi karibuni. Wastani wa jina lenye uliquiditi ni siku 1.87, jambo ambalo hufanya kiwango cha siku tano kuwa cha maana badala ya kuwa cha kiholela. Ukurasa wa Hisa zenye siku nyingi zaidi za kucover unafuatilia sehemu hiyo ya mwisho pekee.

Matokeo ya kawaida yaliyofuata

Mchoro kama huu ni rahisi kuutengeneza na ni rahisi kuutafsiri vibaya, hivyo hapa kuna mchoro huo huo uliopitishwa kinyume, kwa kutumia muda ule ule tangu faili. Kwa kila bei ya malipo (settlement) katika mwaka uliopita, chukua majina yaliyovuka kigezo cha msongamano (crowding gate) kwenye bei hiyo na ambayo yalikuwa yakipanda kwa kipindi cha vikao sita vinavyoishia siku ishirini za kalenda baadaye, ambapo ukurasa huu upo leo, kisha pima kila moja yalichofanya katika siku 30 za kalenda zilizofuata.

UlizaKila jina lililochujwa hapo awali, kulingana na utendaji wake katika siku 30 zijazo
SQL halisi nyuma ya kila namba
WITH screened AS (
    SELECT settlement_date, ticker
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_interest
    WHERE settlement_date >= today() - 400
      AND settlement_date <= today() - 55
      AND avg_daily_volume >= 5000000
      AND days_to_cover >= 5
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
      AND ticker NOT IN ('KORU','SOXL','SOXS','TQQQ','SQQQ','NVDL','NVDS','NVD','TSLL','TSLQ','TSLZ','SPXL','SPXS','UPRO','SPXU','LABU','LABD','FAS','FAZ','TNA','TZA','YINN','YANG','UDOW','SDOW','BOIL','KOLD','UCO','SCO','USD','SSO','SDS','QLD','QID','ERX','ERY','DRN','DRV','CURE','SOXY','MUU','SNXX','UVXY','SVXY','UVIX','SVIX','BULZ','WEBL','WEBS','DPST','DRIP','GUSH','AGQ','ZSL','BITX','ETHU','MSTX','MSTU','CONL','DUST','JNUG','JDST','NUGT')
),
split_hits AS (
    SELECT s.settlement_date AS sd, s.ticker AS tkr
    FROM screened s
    INNER JOIN global_markets.stocks_splits sp ON sp.ticker = s.ticker
    WHERE sp.execution_date > s.settlement_date + 11
      AND sp.execution_date <= s.settlement_date + 50
),
daily AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN (SELECT DISTINCT ticker FROM screened)
      AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 400 DAY
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= 570
      AND toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
        + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) < 960
    GROUP BY ticker, session
),
paired AS (
    SELECT s.settlement_date AS sd,
           s.ticker AS tkr,
           (argMaxIf(d.rth_close, d.session, d.session <= s.settlement_date + 20)
            / argMinIf(d.rth_close, d.session, d.session <= s.settlement_date + 20) - 1) * 100 AS prior_pct,
           (argMaxIf(d.rth_close, d.session, d.session >= s.settlement_date + 20)
            / argMinIf(d.rth_close, d.session, d.session >= s.settlement_date + 20) - 1) * 100 AS next_pct
    FROM screened s
    INNER JOIN daily d ON d.ticker = s.ticker
    WHERE d.session > s.settlement_date + 11
      AND d.session <= s.settlement_date + 50
    GROUP BY sd, tkr
    HAVING countIf(d.session <= s.settlement_date + 20) >= 4
       AND countIf(d.session >= s.settlement_date + 20) >= 15
),
outcomes AS (
    SELECT multiIf(next_pct < -20, 1,
                   next_pct < -10, 2,
                   next_pct < 0, 3,
                   next_pct < 10, 4,
                   next_pct < 20, 5, 6) AS bucket,
           multiIf(next_pct < -20, 'Fell more than 20%',
                   next_pct < -10, 'Fell 10% to 20%',
                   next_pct < 0, 'Fell 0% to 10%',
                   next_pct < 10, 'Rose 0% to 10%',
                   next_pct < 20, 'Rose 10% to 20%', 'Rose more than 20%') AS move_over_30_days
    FROM paired
    WHERE prior_pct > 0
      AND (sd, tkr) NOT IN (SELECT sd, tkr FROM split_hits)
),
tallied AS (
    SELECT bucket, move_over_30_days, count() AS name_count
    FROM outcomes
    GROUP BY bucket, move_over_30_days
)
SELECT move_over_30_days,
       name_count,
       round(100.0 * sum(name_count) OVER (ORDER BY bucket) / sum(name_count) OVER (), 1) AS cumulative_share_pct
FROM tallied
ORDER BY bucket

51.7% ya hizo uchunguzi za majina na bei za malipo zilifanya biashara kwa kushuka siku 30 baadaye. Hii ni karibu sawa na kutupa sarafu, na huu ndio ukweli wa ukurasa huu: wauzaji wa mkato (short sellers) mara nyingi huwa sahihi, na hali ya msongamano-pamoja-na-kuongezeka (crowded-plus-rising) inaelezea hali ya soko badala ya faida ya kibiashara (edge). Sehemu za mwisho (tails) ndipo squeeze ingeonekana, na zote mbili ni ndogo. 68 ya uchunguzi zilipungua kwa zaidi ya kumi na tano; 73 zilipata faida kwa zaidi ya kumi na tano, ambayo ni kundi ambapo squeeze halisi ingetokea. 87.8% ya sampuli haikuwahi kufikia hapo.

Chukulia panel hiyo kama usambazaji (distribution), si kama matokeo ya biashara. Haizingatii gharama, ada za kukopa, na ukubwa wa nafasi (position sizing), na inatoa uzito sawa kwa kila jina lililoainishwa. Pande zote mbili zimeunganishwa siku ishirini za kalenda baada ya kila tarehe ya malipo, muda ule ule unaotumiwa na ukurasa huu, hivyo kila jina lililoainishwa linategemea bei ambazo msomaji angeweza kuziona. Mwaka mmoja wa malipo ni sampuli ndogo.

Jinsi hii inavyopimwa

Kila sheria na ubaguzi nyuma ya nambari hapo juu.

  • Faili ya short-interest imeripotiwa na soko la hisa mara mbili kwa mwezi. Print inayotumika hapa ilimalizika Jun 30, 2026, 24 siku zilizopita. Hakuna nambari ya kila siku ya short interest inayowasilishwa nchini US, kuna makadirio ya wasambazaji tu yaliyoundwa kutokana na data ya ukodishaji wa dhamana.
  • Kiwango cha ukwasi: milioni tano za wastani wa ujazo wa kila siku, kama ilivyoripotiwa katika faili hiyo hiyo. Bila kiwango hiki, orodha itajaa kampuni ndogo ambazo idadi yao kubwa ya days-to-cover ni matokeo tu ya ujazo wa karibu sifri.
  • Kiwango cha crowding: siku tano au zaidi za cover, juu zaidi ya wastani wa ukwasi ulioonyeshwa hapo juu.
  • Momentum leg: mabadiliko kati ya bei za kufunga za vikao sita vilivyokamilika vya kawaida, ambayo ni return ya vikao vitano. Kikao kinaingia kwenye dirisha baada tu wakati tape ya kirejelewa inapokuwa na siku nzima ya minute bars kwa ajili yake. Kikao ambacho bado kinakuja kwenye feed kinasitishwa badala ya kupimwa kikiwa kimeundwa nusu, ili dirisha liweze kuchelewa kikao kimoja nyuma ya kalenda hata wakati kikao hicho kimefunga. Bei ni bei za kufunga za kikao cha kawaida.
  • Tarehe zote zina mipaka. Paneli iliyo juu huhifadhi umri wa kila ingizo kwa siku, na umri huo una mipaka ya uhakika. Print ya settlement iliyo zaidi ya mwezi, au tape ya bei iliyochelewa zaidi kuliko ucheleweshaji wa kawaida wa ingizo, inasimamisha ukurasa huu kwa mapitio badala ya kuchapisha tarehe iliyopitwa na wakati chini ya kichwa kipya.
  • Ubaguzi. Mifuko ya uwekezaji ya leveraged na inverse exchange-traded funds huondolewa kwenye kila paneli (short interest yao ni matokeo ya hedging kwa kiasi kikubwa), pamoja na alama moja isiyo na uhakika ambayo wasambazaji wameitumia kwa kampuni mbili tofauti. Paneli zinazopima mabadiliko ya bei pia huondoa jina ambalo split ya hisa yake inaangukia ndani ya dirisha la upimaji la paneli hiyo, kwa sababu split hufanya ionekane kama kuna mabadiliko makubwa. Katika backtest, jaribio hilo hufanya kazi kwa kila settlement, hivyo split katika mwezi mmoja haiondoi kamwe uchunguzi wa jina katika miezi mingine.
  • Mifuko hukaa katika faili hii pamoja na kampuni zinazojiendesha. Bond au index ETF inaweza kuwa na short position kubwa inayotokana na mifumo ya creation-and-redemption badala ya mtu yeyote anayeweka dau dhidi yake.
  • Hakuna float wala idadi ya hisa katika faili hii, na hakuna options open interest popote kwenye ghala. Safu ya shares-outstanding hapo juu inatoka kwenye jedwali tofauti la fundamentals, hivyo jina lisilo na thamani ya soko iliyochapishwa huondoka kwenye paneli hiyo.
  • Hakuna kitu hapa ni utabiri au mapendekezo. Inaelezea hali zinazoweza kupimwa, pamoja na paneli ya matokeo iliyoambatishwa.

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Mara kwa Mara

Unatafuta vipi hisa zinazoweza kusababisha short squeeze?

Chuja faili ya short-interest iliyoripotiwa na soko ili kupata nafasi kubwa kulingana na ujazo wa kila siku wa hisa, baki na majina yenye ukwasi wa kutosha kufanya biashara, kisha kagua ikiwa bei tayari inapanda. Uchambuzi huu wa faili ya short-interest ya Jun 30, 2026 unatumia siku tano au zaidi za kuingia (days to cover), milioni tano za wastani wa ujazo wa kila siku, na mwendo chanya wa vikao vitano, hali iliyobaki na majina 31.

Ni asilimia gani ya short interest inayosababisha squeeze?

Hakuna namba maalum, na mtu yeyote anayetoa namba hiyo anakisia. Squeezes zimeanza kutokana na viwango mbalimbali, na mara nyingi zaidi hakuna kinachotokea: katika mwaka mmoja wa rekodi za settlement zilizopita, 51.7% ya majina ambayo uchambuzi huu ungeyaweka yalikuwa chini siku 30 baadaye. short interest kubwa ni sharti la awali, si kichocheo.

Data ya short interest ni ya zamani kiasi gani?

Settlement mpya zaidi iliyopo kwenye faili hii ni ya tarehe Jun 30, 2026, siku 24 zilizopita, na data ya bei inaendelea hadi Jul 22, 2026. Pengo hilo ni mzunguko wa utoaji ripoti badala ya data iliyopitwa na wakati: nafisi huhesabiwa mara mbili kwa mwezi na kuchapishwa takriban siku nane za biashara baada ya kila tarehe ya settlement, hivyo kila takwimu ya short-interest popote inakuja ikiwa imepitwa na wakati kwa wiki kadhaa.

Ni hisa zipi zenye short interest kubwa zaidi sasa hivi?

Majaribio yasiyochujwa, moja kwa siku za kuingia (days to cover) na jingine kwa idadi ghafi ya hisa short, yapo kwenye ukurasa wa hisa zenye short interest kubwa zaidi. Ukurasa huu unajibu swali nyembamba zaidi: miongoni mwa majina kwenye faili ya Jun 30, 2026 ambayo bei yake pia inapanda, yenye msongamano mkubwa zaidi ni MPT ikiwa na siku 16.9 za kuingia, ambayo ni kiongozi wa uchambuzi huu badala ya kuwa hisa inayoshortwa zaidi sokoni.

Kila jopo ni hoja (query) iliyohifadhiwa na yenye toleo maalum juu ya faili iliyoripotiwa na soko. Panua SQL chini ya jedwali lolote, au endesha uchambuzi huu kwa viwango vyako mwenyewe kwenye terminal ya Strasmore.

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